Ground truthing global-scale model estimates of groundwater recharge across Africa.
Ground truthing global-scale model estimates of groundwater recharge across Africa.
复制标题
非洲地下水补给的地面实况全球规模模型估计。
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159765
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
West C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
West C
地下水是全世界自然和人类系统的重要资源，含水层的补给速度限制了可持续的消耗水平。然而，全球规模模型的补给估计经常彼此不一致，并且很少与地面估计进行比较。我们将八个全球模型的长期平均年补给和补给比（年补给/年降水）估计值与非洲 100 多个地面估计值进行比较。我们发现非洲大部分地区的年补给率和补给率的模型估计存在显着差异。此外，在非洲不同地区，模型之间与地面估计的相似性也存在很大差异且不一致。在大多数景观中，模型通常显示出正偏差和负偏差，这使得确定如何改进全球规模模型的补给预测变得具有挑战性。 However, global-scale models which reflected stronger climatic controls on their recharge estimates compared more favourably to ground-based estimates.鉴于当前全球规模模型的补给估算存在显着的不确定性，我们强调，对于研究调查和运营管理而言，整个非洲的地下水补给预测不应依赖于单一模型的估算，而应考虑不同模型估算的分布。我们的工作将引起决策者和研究人员的特别兴趣，他们考虑利用此类补给产出来制定地下水治理决策或调查地下水安全，特别是在气候变化的潜在影响下。
Groundwater is an essential resource for natural and human systems throughout the world and the rates at which aquifers are recharged constrain sustainable levels of consumption. However, recharge estimates from global-scale models regularly disagree with each other and are rarely compared to ground-based estimates. We compare long-term mean annual recharge and recharge ratio (annual recharge/annual precipitation) estimates from eight global models with over 100 ground-based estimates in Africa. We find model estimates of annual recharge and recharge ratio disagree significantly across most of Africa. Furthermore, similarity to ground-based estimates between models also varies considerably and inconsistently throughout the different landscapes of Africa. Models typically showed both positive and negative biases in most landscapes, which made it challenging to pinpoint how recharge prediction by global-scale models can be improved. However, global-scale models which reflected stronger climatic controls on their recharge estimates compared more favourably to ground-based estimates. Given this significant uncertainty in recharge estimates from current global-scale models, we stress that groundwater recharge prediction across Africa, for both research investigations and operational management, should not rely upon estimates from a single model but instead consider the distribution of estimates from different models. Our work will be of particular interest to decision makers and researchers who consider using such recharge outputs to make groundwater governance decisions or investigate groundwater security especially under the potential impact of climate change.
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影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Fletcher, Sarah;Lickley, Megan;Strzepek, Kenneth
通讯作者：
Strzepek, Kenneth
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Telteu;Hannes Müller Schmied;W. Thiery;G. Leng;P. Burek;Xingcai Liu;J. Boulange;L. Andersen;M. Grillakis;S. Gosling;Y. Satoh;O. Rakovec;T. Stacke;Jinfeng Chang;N. Wanders;Harsh L. Shah;Tim Trautmann;Ganquan Mao;N. Hanasaki;A. Koutroulis;Y. Pokhrel;L. Samaniego;Y. Wada;V. Mishra;Junguo Liu;P. Döll;Fang Zhao;A. Gädeke;Sam S. Rabin;F. Herz
影响因子：
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预测不同土地覆盖和气候条件下的地下水补给——一项全球元研究
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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