Trade vulnerability assessment in the grain-importing countries: A case study of China.
Trade vulnerability assessment in the grain-importing countries: A case study of China.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0257987
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Jiang H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Duan J;X U Y;Jiang H
自2008年全球粮食危机以来，粮食安全脆弱性一直是粮食政策辩论中的一个突出话题。然而，脆弱性本身就很难概念化，在操作和衡量方面更具挑战性。本文构建了一个数学模型，并以中国为例，测算了中国与其贸易伙伴在国际粮食贸易中的脆弱性和敏感性。结果表明：1）中国与粮食贸易伙伴之间的相互依赖程度是不对称的，由此产生贸易脆弱性或经济实力; 2）中国粮食贸易脆弱性在各国间表现出较高的时空异质性：较高脆弱性区域集中在北美和东北亚，且较高脆弱性区域的范围有扩大的趋势; 3）研究结果还表明，中国对不同国家粮食市场波动的敏感性也不同，中国粮食贸易的高敏感区主要分布在美洲、欧洲和大洋洲。本文的主要贡献是制定了粮食贸易脆弱性评估方法，并研究了国际粮食贸易对进口国粮食安全的影响，使用脆弱性指数和敏感性指数进行衡量。尽管如此，本研究的结论可以被认为是初步的，未来的研究仍然有很大的潜力，以进一步深化和扩大我们的分析。
Since the 2008 global food crisis, food security vulnerability has been a prominent topic in the food policy debate. However, vulnerability is inherently difficult to conceptualize and is more challenging to operationalize and measure. This study constructs a mathematical model and takes China as a case study to measure the vulnerability and sensitivity of China with its partners in the international grain trade. The results show that 1) the degree of interdependence between China and its grain trading partners is asymmetric, which generates trade vulnerability or economic power; 2) the vulnerability of China’s food trade shows a high spatiotemporal heterogeneity among countries: the higher vulnerability zones are concentrated in North America and Northeast Asia, and the scope of the higher vulnerability zones tends to expand; 3) Our results also reveal that China also has different sensitivities to fluctuations in grain markets from different countries, and the higher sensitive zones of the grain trade in China are mainly distributed in America, Europe, and Oceania. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a methodology for food trade vulnerability assessment and examines the influence of international food trade on food security in importing countries, measured using the vulnerability index and sensitivity index. Nevertheless, the conclusions of this study can be considered preliminary, and there remains great potential for future studies to deepen and broaden our analyses further.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Cinner JE;Huchery C;Darling ES;Humphries AT;Graham NA;Hicks CC;Marshall N;McClanahan TR
通讯作者：
McClanahan TR
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Dolfing, Alexander G.;Leuven, Jasper R. F. W.;Dermody, Brian J.
通讯作者：
Dermody, Brian J.
DOI：
10.1057/978-1-137-46925-0_4
发表时间：
2016-01-01
期刊：
AGRICULTURAL TRADE, POLICY REFORMS, AND GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Anderson, Kym
通讯作者：
Anderson, Kym
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Civin, Lubomir;Smutka, Lubos
通讯作者：
Smutka, Lubos
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Gao, Sheng;Sun, Huihui;Liu, Wei
通讯作者：
Liu, Wei