Ecological Niche Modeling: An Introduction for Veterinarians and Epidemiologists.
Ecological Niche Modeling: An Introduction for Veterinarians and Epidemiologists.
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DOI：
10.3389/fvets.2020.519059
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Escobar LE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Escobar LE
动物中的大多数传染病不是随机分布的。相反，牲畜和野生动物的疾病在地理、时间和受影响的物种方面是可以预测的。生态位建模方法对于我们理解多样性和疾病分布至关重要。这一贡献是一个介绍性的概述分布生态学领域，重点是它的应用空间流行病学。一个新的，修订的建模框架，提出了更详细和可复制的模型，占两个生物学的疾病建模和数据的不确定性。考虑到大多数疾病系统需要至少两种生物相互作用（即，宿主和病原体），生物相互作用是病原体生态位的核心。因此，忽略病原体动力学中相互作用的生物体（例如，维持、繁殖和传播）可能限制兽医流行病学中预测疾病分布的努力。虽然生态位模型的局限性，它是显而易见的，生态位模型的应用和流行病学的价值将在未来增加。潜在的研究方向包括检查生物变量对模型性能的影响，评估疾病系统中模型校准的协议，以及用于鲁棒模型评估的新工具和指标。旨在采用生态位建模理论和方法来重建和预测流行病的流行病学家应该熟悉生态文献，必须考虑包括兽医在内的多学科合作，以开发生物学上合理的，统计学上可靠的分析。这篇综述试图增加生态学工具在疾病制图中的使用。
Most infectious diseases in animals are not distributed randomly. Instead, diseases in livestock and wildlife are predictable in terms of the geography, time, and species affected. Ecological niche modeling approaches have been crucial to the advancement of our understanding of diversity and diseases distributions. This contribution is an introductory overview to the field of distributional ecology, with emphasis on its application for spatial epidemiology. A new, revised modeling framework is proposed for more detailed and replicable models that account for both the biology of the disease to be modeled and the uncertainty of the data available. Considering that most disease systems need at least two organisms interacting (i.e., host and pathogen), biotic interactions lie at the core of the pathogen's ecological niche. As a result, neglecting interacting organisms in pathogen dynamics (e.g., maintenance, reproduction, and transmission) may limit efforts to forecast disease distributions in veterinary epidemiology. Although limitations of ecological niche modeling are noted, it is clear that the application and value of ecological niche modeling to epidemiology will increase in the future. Potential research lines include the examination of the effects of biotic variables on model performance, assessments of protocols for model calibration in disease systems, and new tools and metrics for robust model evaluation. Epidemiologists aiming to employ ecological niche modeling theory and methods to reconstruct and forecast epidemics should familiarize themselves with ecological literature and must consider multidisciplinary collaborations including veterinarians to develop biologically sound, statistically robust analyses. This review attempts to increase the use of tools from ecology in disease mapping.
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影响因子：
6.6
作者：
Blonder, Benjamin;Morrow, Cecina Babich;Kerkhoff, Andrew J.
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1407773111
发表时间：
2014-07-15
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
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通讯作者：
Bouyer, Jeremy
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
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