Projected changes in wind assistance under climate change for nocturnally migrating bird populations
Projected changes in wind assistance under climate change for nocturnally migrating bird populations
复制标题
气候变化下夜间候鸟种群风力援助的预计变化
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.14531
复制
发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Dokter, Adriaan M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
La Sorte, Frank A.;Horton, Kyle G.;Nilsson, Cecilia;Dokter, Adriaan M.
目前的气候模式和观测表明，大气环流正在受到全球气候变化的影响。为了评估这些变化如何影响夜间迁徙的鸟类种群，我们需要确定在未来的大气条件下，当前在迁徙高度的风辅助模式将如何增强或减少。在这里，我们使用来自美国境内143个气象监测雷达站的信息来估计春季和秋季夜间迁徙的每日高度、密度和方向。我们将这些信息与风力预测相结合，以估计在当前的迁移高度上，预计本世纪风力援助将如何变化。预计中纬度地区的盛行西风带在春季迁移期间强度增加，而在秋季迁移期间强度减少的程度较小。在春季和秋季迁徙期间，整个大陆的南风强度都会增加，而在大陆的中心地区风力最强。春季迁徙期间，大陆中部（0.44 m/s, 10.1%）和东部（0.32 m/s, 9.6%）的风助作用增加，秋季迁徙期间，大陆中部（0.32 m/s, 19.3%）和东部（0.17 m/s, 6.6%）的风助作用减少。因此，在迁徙强度最大的大陆的大部分地区，夜间迁徙的效率预计在春季增加，在秋季减少，这可能会影响许多候鸟物种的时间和能量消耗。这些发现强调了将气候变化预估置于相关生态背景下的重要性，并强调了考虑气候变化可能对自然系统产生积极和消极影响的可能性的必要性。
Current climate models and observations indicate that atmospheric circulation is being affected by global climate change. To assess how these changes may affect nocturnally migrating bird populations, we need to determine how current patterns of wind assistance at migration altitudes will be enhanced or reduced under future atmospheric conditions. Here, we use information compiled from 143 weather surveillance radars stations within the contiguous United States to estimate the daily altitude, density, and direction of nocturnal migration during the spring and autumn. We intersected this information with wind projections to estimate how wind assistance is expected to change during this century at current migration altitudes. The prevailing westerlies at midlatitudes are projected to increase in strength during spring migration and decrease in strength to a lesser degree during autumn migration. Southerly winds will increase in strength across the continent during both spring and autumn migration, with the strongest gains occurring in the center of the continent. Wind assistance is projected to increase across the central (0.44 m/s; 10.1%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.32 m/s; 9.6%) during spring migration, and wind assistance is projected to decrease within the central (0.32 m/s; 19.3%) and eastern portions of the continent (0.17 m/s; 6.6%) during autumn migration. Thus, across a broad portion of the continent where migration intensity is greatest, the efficiency of nocturnal migration is projected to increase in the spring and decrease in the autumn, potentially affecting time and energy expenditures for many migratory bird species. These findings highlight the importance of placing climate change projections within a relevant ecological context informed through empirical observations, and the need to consider the possibility that climate change may generate both positive and negative implications for natural systems.
登录
查看更多内容
中纬度极端气候对北美候鸟种群的影响
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
F. A. Sorte;W. Hochachka;Andrew Farnsworth;A. Dhondt;D. Sheldon
通讯作者：
D. Sheldon
夜间雀形目候鸟飞行速度的季节性调节：短途和长途候鸟之间的差异
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
C. Nilsson;J. Bäckman;T. Alerstam
通讯作者：
T. Alerstam
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
La Sorte, Frank A.;Fink, Daniel;Johnston, Alison
通讯作者：
Johnston, Alison
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Barandiaran, Daniel;Wang, Shih-Yu;Hilburn, Kyle
通讯作者：
Hilburn, Kyle
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Tang Y;Winkler J;Zhong S;Bian X;Doubler D;Yu L;Walters C
通讯作者：
Walters C