Accounting for variability when resurrecting dormant propagules substantiates their use in eco-evolutionary studies.
Accounting for variability when resurrecting dormant propagules substantiates their use in eco-evolutionary studies.
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DOI：
10.1111/eva.13316
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发表时间：
2021-12
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
McLachlan JS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vahsen ML;Gentile RM;Summers JL;Kleiner HS;Foster B;McCormack RM;James EW;Koch RA;Metts DL;Saunders C;Megonigal JP;Blum MJ;McLachlan JS
随着时间的推移，利用休眠繁殖体来研究生物对环境变化的反应已经稳步上升。这对于强烈调节生态系统过程的生物尤其重要，因为它们的特征随时间的变化可以提供一个独特的快照，了解过去几十年到几千年的生态系统的结构和功能。理解偏差和变异的来源是复活生态学领域的一个挑战，包括那些经常使用的测量方法，如种子发芽成功率，是繁殖体活力的不完美指标。使用贝叶斯统计框架，我们评估了可变性的来源，并对切萨皮克湾沿海盐沼生态系统工程师美国Schoenoplectus americanus土壤储存种子的13次萌发试验数据进行了零膨胀和过度分散测试。我们假设这两种模型结构符合对休眠和复苏的生态学理解：零膨胀可能是由于无法生存或试图打破休眠而导致发芽失败，而过度分散可能是由于未能测量重要的种子性状而导致的。一个能解释过度分散但不能解释零膨胀的模型最适合我们的数据。Tetrazolium活力测试证实了这一结果：大多数种子不能发芽是因为它们不能存活，而不是因为实验方法不能打破它们的休眠。种子活力随种子龄呈指数下降，并受种源和试验条件的调节。我们的研究结果为估算土壤储存的自然档案中繁殖体的生存能力提供了一个框架，这是在生态进化研究中使用休眠繁殖体的一个关键方面。
There has been a steady rise in the use of dormant propagules to study biotic responses to environmental change over time. This is particularly important for organisms that strongly mediate ecosystem processes, as changes in their traits over time can provide a unique snapshot into the structure and function of ecosystems from decades to millennia in the past. Understanding sources of bias and variation is a challenge in the field of resurrection ecology, including those that arise because often‐used measurements like seed germination success are imperfect indicators of propagule viability. Using a Bayesian statistical framework, we evaluated sources of variability and tested for zero‐inflation and overdispersion in data from 13 germination trials of soil‐stored seeds of Schoenoplectus americanus, an ecosystem engineer in coastal salt marshes in the Chesapeake Bay. We hypothesized that these two model structures align with an ecological understanding of dormancy and revival: zero‐inflation could arise due to failed germinations resulting from inviability or failed attempts to break dormancy, and overdispersion could arise by failing to measure important seed traits. A model that accounted for overdispersion, but not zero‐inflation, was the best fit to our data. Tetrazolium viability tests corroborated this result: most seeds that failed to germinate did so because they were inviable, not because experimental methods failed to break their dormancy. Seed viability declined exponentially with seed age and was mediated by seed provenance and experimental conditions. Our results provide a framework for accounting for and explaining variability when estimating propagule viability from soil‐stored natural archives which is a key aspect of using dormant propagules in eco‐evolutionary studies.
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影响因子：
4.1
作者：
Burge DRL;Edlund MB;Frisch D
通讯作者：
Frisch D
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
BIERE, A
通讯作者：
BIERE, A
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Bustos-Segura, C.;Fornoni, J.;Nunez-Farfan, J.
通讯作者：
Nunez-Farfan, J.
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Davis, MB;Shaw, RG;Etterson, JR
通讯作者：
Etterson, JR
影响因子：
3
作者：
Etterson, Julie R.;Franks, Steven J.;Weis, Arthur E.
通讯作者：
Weis, Arthur E.