Distance, Trade, and Income - the 1967 to 1975 Closing of the Suez Canal as a Natural Experiment
Distance, Trade, and Income - the 1967 to 1975 Closing of the Suez Canal as a Natural Experiment
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距离、贸易和收入 - 1967 年至 1975 年关闭苏伊士运河作为一项自然实验
DOI：
10.3386/w15557
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
James D. Feyrer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
James D. Feyrer
距离对双边贸易的负面影响是国际贸易中最有力的发现之一。然而，这种负面关系的根本原因尚不清楚。本文利用对距离的暂时冲击，即 1967 年苏伊士运河的关闭和 1975 年的重新开放，来研究距离对贸易的影响以及贸易对收入的影响。海上距离的时间序列变化允许包含成对效应，这解释了国家之间品味和文化的静态差异。因此，与典型的重力模型估计相比，本文估计的距离效应更清楚地说明了货物贸易中的运输成本。研究发现，距离对贸易有重大影响，其弹性约为典型横截面估计值的一半。由于贸易冲击对于大多数国家来说都是外生的，因此可以利用冲击带来的预测贸易量来确定贸易对收入的影响。人们发现贸易对收入有重大影响。时间序列维度考虑了控制所有长期收入差异的国家固定效应。由于识别是通过海上距离的变化来实现的，因此其影响完全通过货物贸易来实现，而不是通过技术转让、旅游或外国直接投资等替代渠道来实现。
The negative effect of distance on bilateral trade is one of the most robust findings in international trade. However, the underlying causes of this negative relationship are less well understood. This paper exploits a temporary shock to distance, the closing of the Suez canal in 1967 and its reopening in 1975, to examine the effect of distance on trade and the effect of trade on income. Time series variation in sea distance allows for the inclusion of pair effects which account for static differences in tastes and culture between countries. The distance effects estimated in this paper are therefore more clearly about transportation costs in the trade of goods than typical gravity model estimates. Distance is found to have a significant impact on trade with an elasticity that is about half as large as estimates from typical cross sectional estimates. Since the shock to trade is exogenous for most countries, predicted trade volume from the shock can be used to identify the effect of trade on income. Trade is found to have a significant impact on income. The time series dimension allows for country fixed effects which control for all long run income differences. Because identification is through changes in sea distance, the effect is coming entirely through trade in goods and not through alternative channels such as technology transfer, tourism, or foreign direct investment.
影响因子：
7.7
作者：
F. Rodríguez;D. Rodrik
通讯作者：
F. Rodríguez;D. Rodrik
DOI：
10.2307/2534573
发表时间：
1995
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
J. Sachs;Andrew M. Warner
通讯作者：
J. Sachs;Andrew M. Warner