The Work-Averse Cyberattacker Model: Theory and Evidence from Two Million Attack Signatures.
The Work-Averse Cyberattacker Model: Theory and Evidence from Two Million Attack Signatures.
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DOI：
10.1111/risa.13732
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发表时间：
2022-08
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Williams, Julian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Allodi, Luca;Massacci, Fabio;Williams, Julian
网络攻击者可能利用所有现有漏洞的假设推动了大多数现代网络风险管理实践和相应的安全投资。我们提出了一个新的攻击者模型，基于动态优化，我们证明了大，初始，固定成本的利用开发诱导攻击者延迟实施和部署的漏洞利用。理论模型预测，大规模攻击者最好（i）每个软件版本只利用一个漏洞，（ii）主要包括攻击复杂度低的漏洞，（iii）尝试将新漏洞武器化的速度较慢。这些预测经验验证了一个大的数据集上观察到的大规模攻击发起对一个大集合的信息系统。本文的研究结果使网络风险管理人员能够更好地集中精力进行漏洞管理，并为进一步研究定义攻击者（攻击性）过程奠定了新的理论和经验基础。
The assumption that a cyberattacker will potentially exploit all present vulnerabilities drives most modern cyber risk management practices and the corresponding security investments. We propose a new attacker model, based on dynamic optimization, where we demonstrate that large, initial, fixed costs of exploit development induce attackers to delay implementation and deployment of exploits of vulnerabilities. The theoretical model predicts that mass attackers will preferably (i) exploit only one vulnerability per software version, (ii) largely include only vulnerabilities requiring low attack complexity, and (iii) be slow at trying to weaponize new vulnerabilities . These predictions are empirically validated on a large data set of observed massed attacks launched against a large collection of information systems. Findings in this article allow cyber risk managers to better concentrate their efforts for vulnerability management, and set a new theoretical and empirical basis for further research defining attacker (offensive) processes.
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影响因子：
2.5
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
16.6
作者：
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影响因子：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
10.1007/978-1-4614-0237-4
发表时间：
2011-01-01
期刊：
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影响因子：
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作者：
Birge, John R.;Louveaux, Francois
通讯作者：
Louveaux, Francois