Model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of oral antivirals against SARS-CoV-2 in Korea.
Model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of oral antivirals against SARS-CoV-2 in Korea.
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DOI：
10.4178/epih.e2022034
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Jung J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jo Y;Kim SB;Radnaabaatar M;Huh K;Yoo JH;Peck KR;Park H;Jung J
许多国家已授权对2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）轻至中度病例的患者紧急使用口服抗病毒药物。我们评估了这些药物在减少严重COVID-19病例数量和减轻韩国医疗系统负担方面的成本效益。使用现有模型，我们估计了2022年韩国需要住院/重症监护室（ICU）的人数。与标准治疗相比，治疗方案包括（1）所有成人患者，（2）仅老年患者，和（3）仅患有基础疾病的成人患者。根据目前的卫生系统能力，我们计算了每种情况下避免的每例严重病例和每例住院的增量成本。我们估计，2022年将有236，510名COVID-19患者需要住院/重症监护室治疗，仅接受标准护理。Nirmatrelvir/利托那韦（87%的疗效）预计将减少80%，24%，和17%，当针对所有成人，成人与基础疾病，和老年患者（分别为25，8，和4%，莫努匹拉韦，30%的疗效）。Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir的使用可能具有成本效益，对于上述目标人群，每例重症患者的预计成本分别为8，878美元、8，964美元和1，454美元，而莫努匹拉韦的成本效益可能较低，成本分别为28，492美元、29，575美元和7，915美元。在韩国，以老年患者为对象的有症状的COVID-19患者使用Nirmatrelvir/利托那韦口服治疗将具有高度成本效益，如果针对所有成年患者而不是标准治疗，将大幅降低住院需求，使其低于卫生系统的能力。
Many countries have authorized the emergency use of oral antiviral agents for patients with mild-to-moderate cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We assessed the cost-effectiveness of these agents for reducing the number of severe COVID-19 cases and the burden on Korea’s medical system. Using an existing model, we estimated the number of people who would require hospital/intensive care unit (ICU) admission in Korea in 2022. The treatment scenarios included (1) all adult patients, (2) elderly patients only, and (3) adult patients with underlying diseases only, compared to standard care. Based on the current health system capacity, we calculated the incremental costs per severe case averted and hospital admission for each scenario. We estimated that 236,510 COVID-19 patients would require hospital/ICU admission in 2022 with standard care only. Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (87% efficacy) was predicted to reduce this number by 80%, 24%, and 17% when targeting all adults, adults with underlying diseases, and elderly patients (25, 8, and 4%, respectively, for molnupiravir, with 30% efficacy). Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir use is likely to be cost-effective, with predicted costs of US$8,878, US$8,964, and US$1,454, per severe patient averted for the target groups listed above, respectively, while molnupiravir is likely to be less cost-effective, with costs of US$28,492, US$29,575, and US$7,915, respectively. In Korea, oral treatment using nirmatrelvir/ritonavir for symptomatic COVID-19 patients targeting elderly patients would be highly cost-effective and would substantially reduce the demand for hospital admission to below the capacity of the health system if targeted to all adult patients instead of standard care.
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影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Suh, Hyeon Jeong;Kim, Deok Hee;Park, Sang-Won
通讯作者：
Park, Sang-Won
影响因子：
8.4
作者：
Sharma, Yogesh;Horwood, Chris;Thompson, Campbell
通讯作者：
Thompson, Campbell
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Choi YJ;Park JY;Lee HS;Suh J;Song JY;Byun MK;Cho JH;Kim HJ;Park HJ
通讯作者：
Park HJ
DOI：
10.1126/science.abn4947
发表时间：
2022-05-06
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Pulliam JRC;van Schalkwyk C;Govender N;von Gottberg A;Cohen C;Groome MJ;Dushoff J;Mlisana K;Moultrie H
通讯作者：
Moultrie H
影响因子：
8.4
作者：
Lee, Ji Yeon;Hong, Seung Wan;Kim, Hyun ah
通讯作者：
Kim, Hyun ah