Stormy geomorphology: geomorphic contributions in an age of climate extremes
Stormy geomorphology: geomorphic contributions in an age of climate extremes
复制标题
暴风雨地貌：极端气候时代的地貌贡献
DOI：
10.1002/esp.4062
复制
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Naylor L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Naylor L
在全球尺度上，极端气候事件的频率和/或严重程度的增加在多年代际时间尺度上变得越来越明显，尽管科学可信度相对较低。在区域尺度上，对未来极端事件可能性趋势的科学信心更强，尽管趋势在空间上是可变的。由于内部景观系统动力学和外部强迫因素（如土地利用、河流和海岸工程的变化）的混杂影响，对这些极端气候风险的信心变得模糊。地貌学是将气候变化影响从其他控制因素中分离出来的一门关键学科，从而促进了关于社会适应极端事件的辩论。我们回顾了四个主要的地貌学对洪水和风暴科学的贡献。首先，我们展示了古地貌学和当前过程研究如何扩展历史洪水记录，同时也揭示了内部地貌动力学、人类影响和气候制度变化之间复杂的相互作用。一个关键的成果将是改进洪水概率的量化和洪水风险的危害维度。其次，我们提供的证据表明，先前的地貌和气候参数如何改变极端事件引起的景观变化的风险和幅度。第三，我们发现地貌过程可以调节和增加极端事件的地貌影响，从而影响社会风险。第四，我们展示了通过地貌系统管理洪水和风暴风险的潜力，包括近期（未来50年）和长期。我们建议，如果风险评估包括古数据，如果地貌学被用于支持基于自然的管理方法，如果土地利用管理解决了极端事件可能引发的地貌过程机制的变化，那么管理洪水和侵蚀的关键方法将更加有效。我们认为，采用以地貌为基础的适应策略将使社会能够发展更有弹性、更不脆弱的社会地貌系统，以适应极端气候时代。©2016作者。地球表面过程和地形由约翰威利和儿子有限公司出版。
The increasing frequency and/or severity of extreme climate events are becoming increasingly apparent over multi‐decadal timescales at the global scale, albeit with relatively low scientific confidence. At the regional scale, scientific confidence in the future trends of extreme event likelihood is stronger, although the trends are spatially variable. Confidence in these extreme climate risks is muddied by the confounding effects of internal landscape system dynamics and external forcing factors such as changes in land use and river and coastal engineering. Geomorphology is a critical discipline in disentangling climate change impacts from other controlling factors, thereby contributing to debates over societal adaptation to extreme events. We review four main geomorphic contributions to flood and storm science. First, we show how palaeogeomorphological and current process studies can extend the historical flood record while also unraveling the complex interactions between internal geomorphic dynamics, human impacts and changes in climate regimes. A key outcome will be improved quantification of flood probabilities and the hazard dimension of flood risk. Second, we present evidence showing how antecedent geomorphological and climate parameters can alter the risk and magnitude of landscape change caused by extreme events. Third, we show that geomorphic processes can both mediate and increase the geomorphological impacts of extreme events, influencing societal risk. Fourthly, we show the potential of managing flood and storm risk through the geomorphic system, both near‐term (next 50 years) and longer‐term. We recommend that key methods of managing flooding and erosion will be more effective if risk assessments include palaeodata, if geomorphological science is used to underpin nature‐based management approaches, and if land‐use management addresses changes in geomorphic process regimes that extreme events can trigger. We argue that adopting geomorphologically‐grounded adaptation strategies will enable society to develop more resilient, less vulnerable socio‐geomorphological systems fit for an age of climate extremes. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Fryirs, Kirstie A.
通讯作者：
Fryirs, Kirstie A.
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
T. Harden;M. Macklin;V. Baker
通讯作者：
T. Harden;M. Macklin;V. Baker
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2007
期刊：
The Annals of thoracic surgery
影响因子：
--
作者：
Avijit Gupta
通讯作者：
Avijit Gupta
巴基斯坦印度河沿岸灾难性洪水的成因和避免
影响因子：
--
作者：
J. Syvitski;G. Brakenridge
通讯作者：
G. Brakenridge
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1406483112
发表时间：
2015-06-16
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Arkema, Katie K.;Verutes, Gregory M.;Guerry, Anne D.
通讯作者：
Guerry, Anne D.