Hurricane Florence and suicide mortality in North Carolina: a controlled interrupted time-series analysis.

Hurricane Florence and suicide mortality in North Carolina: a controlled interrupted time-series analysis.
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DOI:
10.1136/ip-2022-044709
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发表时间:
2023-04
期刊:
影响因子:
3.7
通讯作者:
Ranapurwala, Shabbar
Ranapurwala, Shabbar
中科院分区:
医学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Miller, Vanessa Eve;Pence, Brian W.;Fitch, Kate Vinita;Swilley-Martinez, Monica;Kavee, Andrew L.;Dorris, Samantha;Cooper, Toska;Keil, Alexander P.;Gaynes, Bradley N.;Carey, Timothy S.;Goldston, David;Ranapurwala, Shabbar

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自然灾害与心理健康障碍和自杀意念增加有关;然而,人们对自杀与死亡之间的关系尚不清楚。我们探讨了 2018 年 9 月登陆的飓风佛罗伦萨对北卡罗来纳州 (NC) 自杀死亡人数的影响。我们使用公开的北卡罗来纳州死亡记录数据,通过受控、中断的时间序列分析来估计飓风佛罗伦萨与每月自杀死亡率之间的关联。飓风暴露程度是通过联邦紧急事务管理局 (FEMA) 指定的县级支持来确定的。我们研究了性别、年龄组和种族/民族对效果的影响。 2014年1月至2019年12月期间发生了8363例自杀死亡。2014年至2019年北卡罗来纳州的总体自杀死亡率为每10万人年15.53人(95%CI:15.20,15.87)。飓风过后,暴露县的自杀死亡率立即出现小幅上升(0.89/100,000 PY;95% CI:-2.69,4.48。比较暴露县和未暴露县,佛罗伦萨飓风过后自杀死亡率趋势没有持续变化(每月 0.02/100,000 PY;95% CI:-2.69,4.48) −0.33,0.38)。相对于 2018 年,北卡罗来纳州 2019 年全州自杀率下降。与未受飓风影响的县相比,女性、65 岁以下人群和非西班牙裔黑人的自杀死亡人数立即增加,但在飓风“佛罗伦萨”后的几个月内没有持续变化,尽管结果并未表明飓风“佛罗伦萨”后的情况强劲。亚组分析表明,佛罗伦萨飓风对几个群体的影响存在差异,值得未来进行跟进。
Natural disasters are associated with increased mental health disorders and suicidal ideation; however, associations with suicide deaths are not well understood. We explored how Hurricane Florence, which made landfall in September 2018, may have impacted suicide deaths in North Carolina (NC). We used publicly available NC death records data to estimate associations between Hurricane Florence and monthly suicide death rates using a controlled, interrupted time series analysis. Hurricane exposure was determined by using county-level support designations from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). We examined effect modification by sex, age group, and race/ethnicity. 8363 suicide deaths occurred between January 2014-December 2019. The overall suicide death rate in NC between 2014 and 2019 was 15.53 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI: 15.20,15.87). Post-hurricane, there was a small, immediate increase in the suicide death rate among exposed counties (0.89/100,000 PY; 95% CI: −2.69,4.48. Comparing exposed and unexposed counties, there was no sustained post-Hurricane Florence change in suicide death rate trends (0.02/100,000 PY per month; 95% CI: −0.33,0.38). Relative to 2018, NC experienced a statewide decline in suicides in 2019. An immediate increase in suicide deaths in hurricane-affected counties versus hurricane-unaffected counties was observed among females, people under age 65, and non-Hispanic Black individuals but there was no sustained change in the months after Hurricane Florence. Although results did not indicate a strong post-Hurricane Florence impact on suicide rates, subgroup analysis suggests differential impacts of Hurricane Florence on several groups, warranting future follow-up.
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