Enhanced adaptive management: integrating decision analysis, scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the Everglades.
Enhanced adaptive management: integrating decision analysis, scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the Everglades.
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DOI：
10.1038/srep02922
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发表时间：
2013-10-11
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Linkov, Igor
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Convertino, Matteo;Foran, Christy M.;Keisler, Jeffrey M.;Scarlett, Lynn;LoSchiavo, Andy;Kiker, Gregory A.;Linkov, Igor
我们建议通过决策分析方法加强现有的适应性管理工作，该方法可以指导稳健恢复替代计划的初步选择，并根据持续获取的监测信息和不断变化的利益相关者价值观，告知在行动过程中调整这些替代方案的必要性。我们展示了受佛罗里达大沼泽地恢复工作启发的湿地恢复案例研究中增强适应性管理的应用。我们发现，旨在重建预排水流的替代方案可能会产生积极的生态影响，但也可能具有较高的运营成本，并且对实现减少洪水等其他目标的贡献微乎其微。增强的适应性管理使管理者能够通过信息分析的场景和价值来指导对生态系统建模和监测工作的投资，以支持面对不确定和不断变化的信息的最佳恢复策略。
We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information.
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
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通讯作者：
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