Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom.
Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0197076
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Foyer CH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fodor N;Foskolos A;Topp CFE;Moorby JM;Pásztor L;Foyer CH
奶牛养殖是英国农业最重要的部门之一。由于气候变化，它面临着重大挑战，这将直接影响奶牛的热应激。如果不进行适应，这可能会导致大量牛奶流失。使用由 11 名成员组成的气候预测集合以及 18 种牛奶损失估计方法的集合，以空间明确的方式以 25 公里分辨率估计了 21 世纪英国奶牛产奶量的时间变化。虽然英国气温上升预计将导致年平均牛奶损失相对较低，即使对于英国南部地区（每头牛<180公斤），2090年代最热年份的“最热”25×25公里网格单元显示，年牛奶损失超过1300公斤/头牛。这个数字约占当今奶牛平均潜在产奶量的 17%。尽管年度牛奶损失可能存在相当大的年际变化，并且气候预测之间存在巨大差异，但计算方法的多样性可能会给牛奶损失估计带来更大的不确定性。为了解决这个问题，提出了一种新颖的、更符合生物学原理的牛奶损失估计机制，该机制可以提供更现实的未来预测。我们得出的结论是，英格兰西南部是经济上最容易受到气候变化影响的地区，因为该地区的特点是奶牛群密度高，因此与热应激相关的牛奶损失可能很高。如果不采取缓解措施，预计到本世纪末，该地区与热应激相关的年收入损失在平均年份可能达到 1340 万英镑，在极端年份可能达到 3380 万英镑。
Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the ‘hottest’ 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today’s average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years.
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