Estimating epidemiological parameters for bovine tuberculosis in British cattle using a Bayesian partial-likelihood approach.
Estimating epidemiological parameters for bovine tuberculosis in British cattle using a Bayesian partial-likelihood approach.
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2014.0248
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发表时间：
2014-05-22
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Kao RR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
O'Hare A;Orton RJ;Bessell PR;Kao RR
基于贝叶斯似然参数推理的拟合模型在传染病流行病学中变得越来越重要。详细的数据集为确定这些数据的子集提供了机会，这些子集捕获了潜在流行病学的重要特征。其中一个这样的数据集描述了英国牛中牛结核病（bTB）的流行，这也是具有野生动物宿主（欧亚獾）的疾病的重要范例。在这里，我们评估了一组嵌套的bTB传播动态模型，包括个体和群体水平的传播异质性，并假设传播和诊断测试参数的最小先验知识。我们对模型进行了基于似然的自举操作，仅根据每次牛群暴发开始时bTB检测呈阳性的牛的记录数量来推断参数，并分别考虑了高风险和低风险地区。在这两个地区，没有牛群异质性的模型是首选的，尽管有一些证据表明牛的超级传播。与以前的研究类似，我们发现低检测敏感性和高群内基本繁殖数（R0），这表明在牛中可能存在许多未被观察到的感染，尽管目前的检测制度在大多数情况下足以控制群内流行。与其他数据量更大的方法相比，我们的方法中使用的汇总数据很容易收集，这使得我们的方法对其他系统具有吸引力。
Fitting models with Bayesian likelihood-based parameter inference is becoming increasingly important in infectious disease epidemiology. Detailed datasets present the opportunity to identify subsets of these data that capture important characteristics of the underlying epidemiology. One such dataset describes the epidemic of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in British cattle, which is also an important exemplar of a disease with a wildlife reservoir (the Eurasian badger). Here, we evaluate a set of nested dynamic models of bTB transmission, including individual- and herd-level transmission heterogeneity and assuming minimal prior knowledge of the transmission and diagnostic test parameters. We performed a likelihood-based bootstrapping operation on the model to infer parameters based only on the recorded numbers of cattle testing positive for bTB at the start of each herd outbreak considering high- and low-risk areas separately. Models without herd heterogeneity are preferred in both areas though there is some evidence for super-spreading cattle. Similar to previous studies, we found low test sensitivities and high within-herd basic reproduction numbers (R0), suggesting that there may be many unobserved infections in cattle, even though the current testing regime is sufficient to control within-herd epidemics in most cases. Compared with other, more data-heavy approaches, the summary data used in our approach are easily collected, making our approach attractive for other systems.
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影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Biek, Roman;O'Hare, Anthony;Kao, Rowland R.
通讯作者：
Kao, Rowland R.
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Jewell, C. P.;Keeling, M. J.;Roberts, G. O.
通讯作者：
Roberts, G. O.
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Bessell, P. R.;Orton, R.;Kao, R. R.
通讯作者：
Kao, R. R.
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
HASTINGS, WK
通讯作者：
HASTINGS, WK
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Ferguson, NM;Donnelly, CA;Anderson, RM
通讯作者：
Anderson, RM