Toward Achieving a Vaccine-Derived Herd Immunity Threshold for COVID-19 in the U.S.
Toward Achieving a Vaccine-Derived Herd Immunity Threshold for COVID-19 in the U.S.
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在美国获得疫苗来源的疫苗豁免阈值
DOI：
10.3389/fpubh.2021.709369
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Ngwa GA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gumel AB;Iboi EA;Ngonghala CN;Ngwa GA
2019年12月，一种新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）出现，引发了一场大流行，在世界各个角落造成了前所未有的公共卫生和经济负担。虽然COVID-19的控制最初主要侧重于使用基本公共卫生措施（主要基于使用非药物干预措施，如检疫、隔离、保持社交距离、使用口罩和社区封锁），但2020年12月，三种安全高效的疫苗（阿斯利康公司、Moderna公司和辉瑞公司）被批准用于人体。我们提出了一个新的数学模型，用于评估这些疫苗对减少COVID-19负担的人群水平的影响。该模型根据人们是否习惯在公共场合戴口罩，将总人口分为两个亚组。所得到的多组模型采用非线性微分方程的确定性系统的形式，使用美国第三波COVID-19大流行的COVID-19累积死亡率数据进行拟合和参数化。严格推导了相关无病平衡的渐近稳定性条件，以及疫苗衍生的群体免疫阈值的表达式。该模型的数值模拟表明，戴口罩组初始个体比例的大小，以及非戴口罩组（以及戴口罩组中不放弃戴口罩习惯的人）行为的积极变化，在有效遏制美国COVID-19大流行方面发挥了至关重要的作用。这项研究进一步表明，在美国使用辉瑞或Moderna疫苗实现疫苗衍生的群体免疫（消除COVID-19所需的）的前景非常有希望。特别是，我们的研究表明，如果至少60%的人口完全接种疫苗，美国就可以实现群体免疫。此外，如果疫苗接种计划与非药物干预措施相辅相成，合规水平适度提高（相对于基线合规水平），美国在2021年消除大流行的前景将显著增强。该研究进一步表明，虽然针对COVID-19的天然和疫苗衍生免疫力的减弱只会导致负担和预计消除大流行所需时间的轻微增加，但在模型中加入疫苗治疗益处的影响，会导致负担和消除大流行所需时间的大幅减少。
A novel coronavirus emerged in December of 2019 (COVID-19), causing a pandemic that inflicted unprecedented public health and economic burden in all nooks and corners of the world. Although the control of COVID-19 largely focused on the use of basic public health measures (primarily based on using non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as quarantine, isolation, social-distancing, face mask usage, and community lockdowns) initially, three safe and highly-effective vaccines (by AstraZeneca Inc., Moderna Inc., and Pfizer Inc.), were approved for use in humans in December 2020. We present a new mathematical model for assessing the population-level impact of these vaccines on curtailing the burden of COVID-19. The model stratifies the total population into two subgroups, based on whether or not they habitually wear face mask in public. The resulting multigroup model, which takes the form of a deterministic system of nonlinear differential equations, is fitted and parameterized using COVID-19 cumulative mortality data for the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Conditions for the asymptotic stability of the associated disease-free equilibrium, as well as an expression for the vaccine-derived herd immunity threshold, are rigorously derived. Numerical simulations of the model show that the size of the initial proportion of individuals in the mask-wearing group, together with positive change in behavior from the non-mask wearing group (as well as those in the mask-wearing group, who do not abandon their mask-wearing habit) play a crucial role in effectively curtailing the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. This study further shows that the prospect of achieving vaccine-derived herd immunity (required for COVID-19 elimination) in the U.S., using the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, is quite promising. In particular, our study shows that herd immunity can be achieved in the U.S. if at least 60% of the population are fully vaccinated. Furthermore, the prospect of eliminating the pandemic in the U.S. in the year 2021 is significantly enhanced if the vaccination program is complemented with non-pharmaceutical interventions at moderate increased levels of compliance (in relation to their baseline compliance). The study further suggests that, while the waning of natural and vaccine-derived immunity against COVID-19 induces only a marginal increase in the burden and projected time-to-elimination of the pandemic, adding the impacts of therapeutic benefits of the vaccines into the model resulted in a dramatic reduction in the burden and time-to-elimination of the pandemic.
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影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Kissler, Stephen M.;Tedijanto, Christine;Lipsitch, Marc
通讯作者：
Lipsitch, Marc
DOI：
10.1098/rspa.1927.0118
发表时间：
1927-08-01
期刊：
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-CONTAINING PAPERS OF A MATHEMATICAL AND PHYSICAL CHARACTER
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kermack, WO;McKendrick, AG
通讯作者：
McKendrick, AG
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
Gumel AB;Iboi EA;Ngonghala CN;Elbasha EH
通讯作者：
Elbasha EH
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
Chowell G
通讯作者：
Chowell G
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
Iboi, Enahoro A.;Ngonghala, Calistus N.;Gumel, Abba B.
通讯作者：
Gumel, Abba B.