Non-Poissonian Characteristics of Earthquakes and Their Implications on Optimal Design of Structures

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The goal of this research is to develop optimal earthquake-resistant design procedures that incorporate the current state of knowledge regarding the earthquake phenomenon. Three seismically active regions are selected for the study. These include the Mixico subduction zone, the Alaskan subduction zone, and California interplate boundary regions (e.g., the San Andreas fault zone). The following studies are performed: (1) the data for each region is reviewed and analyzed; in particular, for the temporal and spatial pattern and fault mevhanisms of large earthquakes; (2) a stochastic non-Poissonian model is developed to reflect the temporal and spatial dependence of earthquake events; (3) the occurrence model is combined with appropriate ground motion model to obtain sity specific hazard estimates; (4) the feasibility of the occurrence and site hazard estimation models is demonstrated through application to specific sites within the three study regions; and, (5) optimal design procedures are developed that consider the non-Poissonian nature of the earthquake occurrences, the uncertainties in the site ground motion estimation models, and the benefits, costs, and losses for a particular design.