Earthquake Ground Motion Hazard Predictions Utilizing Geophysical Information

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As a result of a prior NSF-supported study, an appreciation was developed for a number of important aspects of earthquake recurrence modeling and ground motion forecasting. The objective of this research program is to investigate some of these aspects of the overall non-Poissonian seismic hazard model for a particular site. The results of this study will provide a unified approach that will enable estimation of the hazard resulting from future earthquake- induced ground motions at a site, based upon geophysical characterization of the ground motion and in the form of various ground motion parameters. The implications of the hazard model and site ground motion forecasts for earthquake resistant design and damage is also being investigated. Extensive modifications are being made to existing hazard prediction models. Earthquake data from Mexico, California, and Alaska are being used for model testing and parameter estimation. Various model parameters are being tested for sensitivity and the model is being applied to three locations. The result is the development of a generalized computer model for seismic hazard analysis at particular site locations.