Non-Poissonian Earthquake Recurrence Models for Engineering Seismic Hazard Analysis

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This research project is for a broad, systematic investigation of statistical earthquake recurrence models, with the objective of improving engineering seismic hazard analysis. The models to be studied range from current renewal models to a variety of new models, including (l) "characteristic earthquake processes," (2) hybrid and coupled slip-time predictable models, (3) and stochastic models of spatial and temporal variation along the fault plane. This suite of models will be used interactively, e.g., the more physically- based models helping to support and/or constrain the more empirical models. Comparative numerical studies will be made with the different models concerning both recurrence predictions and site-hazard analyses. This comparison will set the limits of validity of current (Poisson) models. Also to be considered are the parameter uncertainties, as well as a new representation of the "areal source zone." The senior principal investigator is internationally recognized for his many contributions to earthquake engineering research and practice, especially in the area of this study. The associate investigator has also demonstrated his ability to contribute to this project. They have the necessary institutional facilities, and together the principal investigators are expected to make a significant advance in seismic hazard assessment.