Non-Poissonian Earthquake Recurrence Models for Engineering Seismic Hazard Analysis

本研究项目是为了广泛、系统地调查 统计地震复发模型，目的是 加强工程地震危险性分析。 要研究的模型范围从目前的更新模型到各种 新模型，包括（1）“特征地震过程”，（2） 混合和耦合滑移时间可预测模型，（3）和随机 沿断层面沿着的时空变化模型。 这 将交互式地使用一套模型，例如，身体上就越- 有助于支持和/或约束更多的经验模型 模型 比较数值研究将与不同的模式 关于复发预测和现场危害分析。 这 比较将设定当前（泊松）模型的有效性极限。 还需要考虑的是参数的不确定性，以及一个新的 代表“区域源区”。" 高级首席研究员因其 对地震工程研究和实践做出了许多贡献， 尤其是在这项研究中。 助理调查员 也证明了他有能力为这个项目做出贡献。 他们有 必要的机构设施，以及主要的 研究人员预计将在地震学方面取得重大进展， 危害评估

This research project is for a broad, systematic investigation of statistical earthquake recurrence models, with the objective of improving engineering seismic hazard analysis. The models to be studied range from current renewal models to a variety of new models, including (l) "characteristic earthquake processes," (2) hybrid and coupled slip-time predictable models, (3) and stochastic models of spatial and temporal variation along the fault plane. This suite of models will be used interactively, e.g., the more physically- based models helping to support and/or constrain the more empirical models. Comparative numerical studies will be made with the different models concerning both recurrence predictions and site-hazard analyses. This comparison will set the limits of validity of current (Poisson) models. Also to be considered are the parameter uncertainties, as well as a new representation of the "areal source zone." The senior principal investigator is internationally recognized for his many contributions to earthquake engineering research and practice, especially in the area of this study. The associate investigator has also demonstrated his ability to contribute to this project. They have the necessary institutional facilities, and together the principal investigators are expected to make a significant advance in seismic hazard assessment.