Earthquake Recurrence Analysis: Micro-Scale Diffusion Models of Stress Evolution Along a Fault

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This award is made according to the provision in AD/ENG Bulletin \no. 85-25, "Expedited Awards for Novel Research." This research program will explore a new concept which promises to be a major step forward in the engineering assessment of seismic hazard. This concept concerns a new approach to modelling the accumulation and release of stress on a fault, that is, to modelling the generation of seismic waves. Stochastic earthquake recurrence models provide key information on future seismic events, namely location, magnitude and time of occurrence. The aim of this research program is to develop more realistic physically-based engineering recurrence models. The feasibility and utility of new diffusion (Markov) random field models of stress evolution along a fault in both time and space will be explored. Specific analysis techniques to be investigated include generalization of diffusion process results to estimate key recurrence statistics - event times, sizes, and locations from simple spatial characteristics such as slip rates and the scales of spatial and temporal fluctuations in material properties. The principal investigator is internationally recognized for his research in probabilistic structural engineering, and he is exceptionally well qualified to undertake this exploratory research program. In addition to the academic excellence of his research, he also participates actively in the implementation of this research, especially with regard to seismic hazard assessment for nuclear power plants. This one-year investigation, if successful, will provide a new and important tool for seismic hazard assessment.