Earthquake Recurrence Analysis: Micro-Scale Diffusion Models of Stress Evolution Along a Fault

地震重现分析：沿断层应力演化的微尺度扩散模型

• 批准号: 8617227
• 负责人: C. Allin Cornell
• 金额: $ 3万
• 依托单位: Stanford University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1986
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1986-12-15 至 1988-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8617227&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Earthquake; Recurrence; Analysis; Micro; Scale

This award is made according to the provision in AD/ENG Bulletin \no. 85-25, "Expedited Awards for Novel Research." This research program will explore a new concept which promises to be a major step forward in the engineering assessment of seismic hazard. This concept concerns a new approach to modelling the accumulation and release of stress on a fault, that is, to modelling the generation of seismic waves. Stochastic earthquake recurrence models provide key information on future seismic events, namely location, magnitude and time of occurrence. The aim of this research program is to develop more realistic physically-based engineering recurrence models. The feasibility and utility of new diffusion (Markov) random field models of stress evolution along a fault in both time and space will be explored. Specific analysis techniques to be investigated include generalization of diffusion process results to estimate key recurrence statistics - event times, sizes, and locations from simple spatial characteristics such as slip rates and the scales of spatial and temporal fluctuations in material properties. The principal investigator is internationally recognized for his research in probabilistic structural engineering, and he is exceptionally well qualified to undertake this exploratory research program. In addition to the academic excellence of his research, he also participates actively in the implementation of this research, especially with regard to seismic hazard assessment for nuclear power plants. This one-year investigation, if successful, will provide a new and important tool for seismic hazard assessment.

此奖项是根据AD/ENG Bulletin \no. 85-25，“小说研究加速奖。" 这项研究计划将探索一个新的概念，这有望成为一个 在地震危险性工程评估方面迈出了重要一步。 这一概念涉及一种新的方法来模拟积累， 也就是说，模拟断层的产生， 地震波 随机地震复发模型提供了关键信息， 未来的地震事件，即位置，震级和时间 发生。 这项研究计划的目的是开发更多 现实的基于物理的工程重现模型。 的 新的扩散（马尔可夫）随机场模型的可行性和实用性， 将探讨沿断层沿着应力在时间和空间上的演化。 要研究的具体分析技术包括泛化 的扩散过程结果，以估计关键的复发统计- 事件时间、大小和位置从简单的空间特征 比如滑动率和时空波动的尺度 in material材料properties属性. 首席研究员因其 研究概率结构工程，他是 非常有资格进行这项探索性研究 程序. 除了他的研究在学术上的卓越成就外， 也积极参与这项研究的实施， 特别是在核电地震危险性评估方面 植物 这项为期一年的调查，如果成功，将提供一个新的 是地震危险性评估的重要工具。