Near-Source Ground Motion: Probabilistic Prediction of Accelerograms & Structural Demands

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This project is aimed to improving our understanding of near-source strong ground motions and extreme structural response to develop improved vector-valued measures of strong ground motion intensity that will correspond more closely to the potential to damage structures. In particulalr, the problems posed by near source effects and their consequences for structural response in the nonlinear regime will be focussed on such effects may lead to substantially larger structural desplacements than current engineering practice associates with common measures of intensity, such as spectral acceleration.A major element of this research project will be improved prediction of near-source strong ground motions. Their engineering application implies that the range and undertainty in these motions due to source, site and path effects be understood and represented, particularly in the near-fault region. This will lead to optimal prediction of the dynamic response of nonlinear multi-degree-of-freedom systems, and its variabilty from likely earthquake sources. This cross-cutting ground motion and response research will be uniquely coordinated in the context of the larger objective of practical probabilistic performance estimation.This project involves integration of engineering and earth science investigation and is supported under the second year initiative "US-Japan Cooperative Research in Urban Earthquake Disaster Mitigation, " NSF 98-36