Collaborative Research: The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Cuts: New Estimates Derived from a Narrative Approach

合作研究：减税的宏观经济影响：从叙事方法得出的新估计

• 批准号: 0550231
• 负责人: Christina Romer
• 金额: $ 14.47万
• 依托单位: University of California-Berkeley
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-04-01 至 2012-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0550231&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Macroeconomic; Effects; Tax

There is enormous disagreement among both economists and politicians about almost every aspect of the impact of changes in taxes on the macroeconomy. A central reason for this disagreement is that it is very hard to measure the macroeconomic effects of tax changes. Tax changes occur for many reasons: some occur because the economy is predicted to move in some direction or because spending is changing; others occur for philosophical or political reasons. Estimating the effects of tax changes using episodes where taxes are responding to the state of the economy or to developments likely to affect economic growth will lead to biased or incorrect results. This project will use the vast narrative record of the arguments underlying tax changes to determine the primary motivation for all major tax changes in the United States since the passage of the Employment Act of 1946. The Economic Reports of the President, the Budgets, presidential speeches, records of congressional debates, and other sources will be used to construct a record of major tax changes, their size and nature, and their motivation. This record will be used to separate the changes into ones intended to offset factors that policymakers believed were acting to push the economy's growth rate above or below its normal level and ones undertaken for other reasons.This information will be used to analyze the macroeconomic effects of tax changes. The behavior of output growth following tax changes not undertaken to return growth to normal will be examined to provide evidence about the size and timing of the effects of tax changes on short-run economic growth. The work will test whether the characteristics of the tax changes affect the estimated impact. The research will also examine the response of the components of output, such as consumption and inventories, to gain a better understanding of the transmission mechanism of tax changes to aggregate activity. In addition, to determine whether failing to account for the motivations for tax changes leads to important biases, the results will be compared with ones obtained using all tax changes rather than just those not taken to return output growth to normal. The project will also provide evidence about the long-run effects of tax changes by examining their impact on investment, saving, interest rates, and inflation. For example, studying the effects of tax changes on investment will provide evidence about one channel through which they could influence growth over the longer term. Furthermore, the research will test the hypothesis that tax cuts restrain government spending by investigating the behavior of spending following tax changes not taken to return output growth to normal.Broader Impact. The choice of the overall level of taxes is a central public policy issue. By providing new evidence about the effects of tax changes, the project has the potential to provide valuable input into debates about both short-run and long-run considerations in the setting of overall taxes. With regard to the short run, evidence about the size and timing of the output effects of tax changes is clearly essential for the use of tax changes for short-run stabilization of the economy. The possibility of using fiscal policy for stabilization is particularly pressing in view of the risks of sudden major shocks to the economy (such as a stock market crash) and concern about the efficacy of monetary policy in some cases (such as the environment of very low interest rates in 2003-2004). Evidence about the effects of tax changes is probably even more important for long-run issues. The hypothesis that reductions in taxes serve to reduce future government spending is often a key motive for tax cuts. Thus evidence about the strength of this effect should be an important consideration in thinking about taxes. Even more fundamentally, evidence about the long-run impact of tax changes on saving and growth should be a central issue in the choice of the overall level of taxes.

在税收变化对宏观经济影响的几乎每一个方面，经济学家和政治家之间都存在巨大分歧。这种分歧的一个主要原因是很难衡量税收变化的宏观经济影响。税收变化的发生有很多原因：一些原因是因为经济预计会向某个方向发展，或者因为支出正在发生变化；另一些则是由于哲学或政治原因。利用税收对经济状况或可能影响经济增长的事态发展作出反应的事件来估计税收变化的影响，将导致有偏见或不正确的结果。本项目将使用大量关于税收变化的争论的叙述记录来确定自1946年《就业法》通过以来美国所有主要税收变化的主要动机。总统的经济报告、预算、总统演讲、国会辩论记录和其他来源将被用于构建主要税收变化、其规模、性质和动机的记录。这一记录将被用来将这些变化分为两类，一类是为了抵消政策制定者认为推动经济增长率高于或低于正常水平的因素，另一类是出于其他原因。这些信息将用于分析税收变化的宏观经济影响。我们将研究税收变化后产出增长的行为，而不是为了使增长恢复正常而进行的税收变化，以提供有关税收变化对短期经济增长影响的规模和时间的证据。这项工作将测试税收变化的特征是否会影响估计的影响。这项研究还将审查诸如消费和存货等产出组成部分的反应，以便更好地了解税收变化对总活动的传导机制。此外，为了确定不考虑税收变化的动机是否会导致重要的偏差，将把结果与使用所有税收变化而不是不采取税收变化使产出增长恢复正常的结果进行比较。该项目还将通过考察税收变化对投资、储蓄、利率和通货膨胀的影响，为税收变化的长期影响提供证据。例如，研究税收变化对投资的影响，将提供证据，证明税收变化可以通过一个渠道影响长期增长。此外，该研究将通过调查税收变化后的支出行为来检验减税限制政府支出的假设，而税收变化并未使产出增长恢复正常。更广泛的影响。总体税收水平的选择是一个核心的公共政策问题。通过提供有关税收变化影响的新证据，该项目有可能为关于总体税收设定的短期和长期考虑的辩论提供有价值的投入。就短期而言，关于税收变化对产出影响的规模和时间的证据显然对于利用税收变化来实现经济的短期稳定至关重要。考虑到突如其来的重大经济冲击（如股市崩盘）的风险，以及对某些情况下货币政策效力的担忧（如2003-2004年极低利率的环境），利用财政政策来实现稳定的可能性尤其紧迫。对于长期问题而言，有关税收变化影响的证据可能更为重要。减税有助于减少未来政府支出的假设，往往是减税的关键动机。因此，在考虑税收时，关于这种效应强度的证据应该是一个重要的考虑因素。更根本的是，在选择总体税收水平时，有关税收变化对储蓄和增长的长期影响的证据应该是一个核心问题。