How Biases in Individual Judgments Affect Market Outcome

该项目继续进行一系列实验研究，旨在测试个人的决策偏见是否在市场环境中持续存在。研究者完成了一系列实验，发现在简单市场情况下，决策偏差确实在一定程度上持续存在。这个项目的目的是在更复杂的市场环境中进行一组实验，以确定市场是否可以纠正这些偏差。这项研究之所以重要，有两个原因。首先，人们经常断言，市场是有效的，总的来说，可以消除个人的非理性决策。本研究旨在验证这一基本假设。其次，该研究有可能通过检验不同市场特征的重要性，扩大我们对市场实际上如何运作以减轻或消除非理性决策的理解。本研究的结果将对不确定条件下决策的本质产生重要的见解，并促进新模型和假设的发展，并为这一研究领域的实证工作设定标准。

This project continues research involving a series of experiments designed to test whether decision-making biases of individuals persist in a market environment. The investigator has completed a set of experiments and found that decision-making biases do persist to some extent in simple-market situations. The purpose of this project is to undertake a set of experiments in more complex market environments to determine whether or not the market can correct for these biases. This research is important for two reasons. First, it is often asserted that markets are efficient and, in the aggregate, eliminate irrational decisions of individuals. This research is aimed at testing this basic assumption. Secondly, the research has the potential to expand our understanding of how, in fact, markets operate to mitigate or eliminate irrational decisions by examining the significance of different market features. The results of this study should yield important insights into the nature of decision making under conditions of uncertainty, and to spur the development of new models and hypotheses and to set the standards for empirical work in this area of research.