How Biases in Individual Judgments Affect Market Outcome

该项目继续研究涉及一系列实验 旨在测试个人的决策偏见是否持续存在 在市场环境下。 调查员已经完成了一套 实验发现，决策偏见确实持续到一些人， 在简单的市场情况下。 该项目的目的是 在更复杂的市场环境中进行一系列实验， 确定市场是否能够纠正这些偏差。 这项研究之所以重要，有两个原因。 首先，它经常 他说，市场是有效的，总的来说， 个人的非理性决定。 这项研究旨在测试 这个基本假设。 其次，这项研究有可能 扩大我们的理解，事实上，市场是如何运作的， 或通过检查以下因素的重要性来消除不合理的决定 不同的市场特征。 这项研究的结果应该会产生 对条件下决策本质的重要见解 不确定性，并刺激新模型的开发， 假设，并为这一领域的实证工作设定标准， research.

This project continues research involving a series of experiments designed to test whether decision-making biases of individuals persist in a market environment. The investigator has completed a set of experiments and found that decision-making biases do persist to some extent in simple-market situations. The purpose of this project is to undertake a set of experiments in more complex market environments to determine whether or not the market can correct for these biases. This research is important for two reasons. First, it is often asserted that markets are efficient and, in the aggregate, eliminate irrational decisions of individuals. This research is aimed at testing this basic assumption. Secondly, the research has the potential to expand our understanding of how, in fact, markets operate to mitigate or eliminate irrational decisions by examining the significance of different market features. The results of this study should yield important insights into the nature of decision making under conditions of uncertainty, and to spur the development of new models and hypotheses and to set the standards for empirical work in this area of research.