The Active Minority: Collaborative Research on PresidentialSelection and the Political Parties

活跃的少数：总统选举与政党的合作研究

• 批准号: 8711038
• 负责人: Ronald Rapoport
• 金额: $ 9.73万
• 依托单位: College of William and Mary
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1987
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1987-08-01 至 1990-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8711038&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Active; Minority; Collaborative; Research; PresidentialSelection

This research focuses on the "active minority" of citizens who will participate in the presidential nomination and general election campaigns of 1988. The investigators are interested in the factors that explain participants' support for candidates as well as the relationship between their activity in the preconvention campaigns and their willingness to work for their party's nominee in the fall campaign. The design of the project specifically recognizes the dynamic character of the process and permits monitoring of changing attitudes and behavior throughout the campaign. Based on their prior research, the investigators will test an explanation of candidate support that includes activists' judgments about how likely each candidate is to win his or her party's nomination, the candidate's chances against the opposition party in the fall, the issue and ideological preferences of the activist, and the personal characteristics of the contenders. Assessing the relative importance of these factors is crucial to understanding the implications of nomination campaigns for the health of the American political parties. For example, activists who emphasize issues and ideology interests in choosing a candidate contribute to the divisiveness of the preconvention campaign and may be less likely to work for the party in the fall should their preferred candidate not receive the nomination. Activists more concerned with nominating a winner, in contrast, may be more likely to work in the fall campaign even if the party fails to nominate their preferred candidate. The research design involves surveys of activists in three states: Iowa, Michigan, and Virginia. These states were selected due to their diversity in political culture, and because precinct caucuses will be held in them at different times during the nomination campaign. Moreover, the investigators have data from these same states from surveys they conducted during the 1984 campaign. The investigators will draw comparisons with their results from 1984 as well as re-contacting the 1984 respondents in order to follow them through the 1988 campaign. The investigators will contact their 1984 samples of caucus-attenders three times during 1988: first in January, then in June after the primary season but before the summer conventions, and finally just after the November election. In order to facilitate comparisons with their 1984 data on caucus-attenders, they will also draw new samples of 1988 caucus-attenders in both parties in each state. These respondents will be contacted twice: once immediately after the caucuses in their state, and again following the fall election. Finally, the investigators will survey samples of state and local party leaders in the three states, who will be contacted at exactly the same times as the caucus attenders in their states. The goal is to collect data on those who are more or less permanently active in the state parties in order to assess the relationship between the state party organizations and the presidential selection process.

这项研究的重点是将参加1988年总统候选人提名和大选活动的“活跃的少数群体”公民。调查人员感兴趣的是解释参与者对候选人的支持的因素，以及他们在大会前竞选活动中的活动与他们在秋季竞选中为本党提名人工作的意愿之间的关系。该项目的设计明确认识到这一过程的动态特征，并允许在整个运动期间监测不断变化的态度和行为。根据他们之前的研究，调查人员将测试对候选人支持的解释，其中包括活动人士对每个候选人赢得党内提名的可能性的判断，候选人在秋季击败反对党的机会，活动人士的问题和意识形态偏好，以及竞争者的个人特征。评估这些因素的相对重要性，对于理解提名活动对美国政党健康的影响至关重要。例如，在选择候选人时强调问题和意识形态利益的活动人士，加剧了大会前竞选活动的分歧，如果他们青睐的候选人没有获得提名，他们可能不太可能在秋季为该党工作。相比之下，更关心提名获胜者的活动人士可能更有可能在秋季的竞选活动中工作，即使该党未能提名他们喜欢的候选人。这项研究设计涉及对三个州的积极分子的调查：爱荷华州、密歇根州和弗吉尼亚州。之所以选择这些州，是因为它们的政治文化具有多样性，而且在提名活动期间，它们将在不同的时间举行选区党团会议。此外，调查人员拥有来自这些州的数据，这些数据来自他们在1984年竞选期间进行的调查。调查人员将与1984年的结果进行比较，并重新联系1984年的受访者，以便在1988年的竞选活动中跟踪他们。在1988年期间，调查人员将与他们1984年的党团会议参选者样本进行三次接触：第一次是在1月份，然后是在初选结束后的6月份，但在夏季大会之前，最后是在11月的选举之后。为了便于与1984年关于参加党团会议的数据进行比较，他们还将在每个州的两党中抽取1988年参加党团会议的新样本。这些受访者将被联系两次：一次是在他们所在州的党团会议之后，另一次是在秋季选举之后。最后，调查人员将调查这三个州的州和地方政党领导人的样本，他们将在与各自州的党团会议参与者完全相同的时间被联系。其目标是收集关于在缔约国或多或少长期活跃的人的数据，以便评估缔约国组织与总统选举过程之间的关系。