Soviet Economic Performance During Period of New Economic Policy, 1921-1928

具有改革思想的苏联领导层正在设计一套新的经济改革体系，通常被称为“改革”。在苏联，改革经济体制的提议需要意识形态上的正当性。一个重要的例子是苏联在1921年3月至1928年通过第一个五年计划期间进行的混合经济试验，即新经济政策（NEP）。新一届苏联领导人提到新经济政策时期可能是市场与计划相结合的模式。当代苏联经济改革的建模者特别感兴趣的是新经济政策将农业私有制、私人零售贸易和所谓的工业和运输制高点的国有结合起来的努力。最近戈尔巴乔夫恢复了布哈林的名誉，布哈林是新经济政策式混合经济的主要倡导者，特别是在农业和贸易方面。同样，中国在农业市场力量方面的成功经验也为苏联所知，而资源分配安排的变化也是总体改革方案的一个合乎逻辑的特征。这项研究将重新审视新经济政策经济。它将提供对新经济政策时期苏联经济增长的估计，希望这将解决文献中关于苏联经济在第一个五年计划前夕复苏程度的争议。第二个任务是发展20世纪20年代农民市场行为的计量经济模型，这是当时集体化辩论的一个关键问题。将使用区域和时间序列数据来估计相对价格和税收对农民销售各种农产品的影响。预计研究中最耗时和最困难的部分将是数据收集阶段。一方面，有太多的可用数据，无论是沙皇的还是苏联的。另一方面，每个数据集都有其缺陷。本研究的主要目标是提高我们对各种数据源和基于这些数据源的估计质量的理解。

The reform-minded Soviet leadership is in the process of devising a new system of economic reforms, generally referred to as "perestroika". In the Soviet Union, proposed changes in the economic system require ideological justification. An important case in point is the Soviet experiment with a mixed economy, called the New Economic Policy, or NEP, from March of 1921 to the adoption of the first five year plan in 1928. The new Soviet leadership has made references to the NEP period as a possible model for combining market and plan. Of particular interest to the contemporary modelers of Soviet economic reform was NEP's effort to combine private ownership in agriculture, private retail trade, and state ownership of the so-called commanding heights of industry and transportation. Recently Gorbachev rehabilitated Bukharin, the chief advocate of a mixed NEP-type economy, particularly in agriculture and trade. The successes of the Chinese experiment with market forces in agriculture, likewise, are known by the Soviets, and changes in resource- allocation arrangements are a logical feature of the general reform package. This research will reexamine the NEP economy. It will provide estimates of Soviet economic growth during the NEP period which, it is hoped, will resolve the controversy in the literature over the extent of the recovery of the Soviet economy on the eve of the first five year plan. A second task will be the development of econometric models of peasant marketing behavior during the 1920's - a key issue of the collectivization debate of that time. Regional and time series data will be used to estimate the effects of relative prices and taxes on peasant marketings of various agriculture products. The most time-consuming and difficult part of the projected research will be the data gathering stage. On the one hand, there is almost too much data available, both Tsarist and Soviet. On the other hand, each data set has its flaws. Improvement of our understanding of the various data sources and the quality of estimates based thereon is a primary goal of the study.