Bounded Rationality and the Role of History in Decision Under Uncertainty

有限理性和历史在不确定性决策中的作用

• 批准号: 8814672
• 负责人: Itzhak Gilboa
• 金额: $ 4.49万
• 依托单位: Northwestern University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1988
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1988-09-15 至 1991-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8814672&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Bounded; Rationality; Role; History; Decision

This research suggests a new model of decision under uncertainty in a multi-period framework where the decision maker (an individual or an organization) is assumed to be boundedly rational. The model differs from existing ones in two key assumptions: (1) the process is assumed to have an infinite history, i.e., to be in a "steady state," and (2Õ) the bounded rationality notion is modeled by a new computational model--a Turing machine with memory. The research objectives are: to define formally a Turing machine with memory; to study the various models of machines with memory, compare their computational ability and analyze the trade-offs among their complexity, size of memory and length of recall; to study the effects of interaction, assuming more than one decision maker is involved, and; to generalize the model in order to allow for the appearance and disappearance of decision makers (or agents) in the context of cooperative and competitive models.

本研究提出了一种新的多时期框架下的不确定决策模型，该模型假设决策者（个人或组织）是有限理性的。该模型与现有的模型在两个关键假设上有所不同：(1)假设该过程具有无限的历史，即处于“稳定状态”，并且（2Õ）有限理性概念由一个新的计算模型-具有记忆的图灵机来建模。研究目标是：形式化地定义具有记忆的图灵机；研究各种具有记忆的机器模型，比较它们的计算能力，分析它们的复杂性、记忆大小和回忆时间之间的权衡；为了研究互动的影响，假设涉及多个决策者，并且；推广模型，以便在合作和竞争模型的背景下允许决策者（或代理人）的出现和消失。