Learning and Evolution in Markets Under Uncertainty

本项目研究工业企业的投资决策 新产品推出的地方。 在经济学文献中， 新产业的某些增长和演变模式， 理论上假设，并在统计上验证。 开始的 新产品的推出，有一个“成长时代”期间 现有的公司获得了可观的利润，新的生产商进入了 市场，然后遵循一个“震荡期”时，价格和 利润率下降，一些企业退出市场。 最后 “成熟期”占上风，在此期间，价格稳定， 公司的数量。 之前对许多行业的研究已经发现了 在这三个发展阶段的市场活动。 比如说， 在“增长时代”， S曲线，而产量以递减的速度上升。 价格下降 随着时间的推移，在下降的速度，有一个很大的差异， 每个阶段的长度，以及不同阶段的扩散模式 产品. 本计画应用贝氏学习模式来研究投资行为 企业在进化过程中的不同阶段的决策。 这些模型包含了不确定性，通常涉及对 产品，行动和收益之间的时间延迟 行动，从经验中学习。 模型的一般类型 包括需求固定产能扩张， 需求变化、库存调整和价格设定。 %%% 本项目研究工业企业的投资决策 新产品推出的地方。 在经济学文献中， 新产业的某些增长和演变模式， 理论上假设，并在统计上验证。 开始的 新产品的推出，有一个“成长时代”期间 现有的公司获得了可观的利润，新的生产商进入了 市场，然后遵循一个“震荡期”时，价格和 利润率下降，一些企业退出市场。 最后 “成熟期”占上风，在此期间，价格稳定， 公司的数量。 这些阶段已经在 采用蒸汽动力、内燃机车、计算机， 新工业产品的一般横截面。 在产业演进过程中，企业获得的信息越来越多， 关于他们经营的市场，例如对 产品，以及同一市场上其他公司的行为。 这些额外的信息影响了公司的决策， 投资于新的生产流程、产能和招聘。 了解行业的演变过程， 新技术的传播有希望增加我们的 关于生产力的知识，研发投资， 和产业创新。

This project examines the investment decisions of firms in industries where new products are introduced. In the Economics literature, certain patterns of growth and evolution of new industries have been postulated theoretically, and verified statistically. Commencing with the introduction of the new product, there is a "growth era" during which existing firms make substantial profits and new producers enter the market, then follows a "shakeout period" when prices and profitability decrease and some firms leave the market. Finally a "mature era" prevails, during which a stabilization in both prices and the number of firms occurs. Previous studies of many industries have found common patterns of market activity during these three evolutionary stages. For instance, during the "growth era" productive capacity increases following an S-curve whereas output rises at a decreasing rate. Prices decline over time at a decreasing rate, and there is a substantial variance in the length of each stage, and the pattern of diffusion for different products. This project applies Bayesian learning models to study the investment decisions of firms at various stages in the evolutionary process. These models incorporate uncertainty, typically concerning demand for the products, time delays between action and the payoff to that action, and learning from experience. The general types of models include capacity expansion with fixed demand, capacity adjustment with changing demand, inventory adjustment, and price setting. %%% This project examines the investment decisions of firms in industries where new products are introduced. In the Economics literature, certain patterns of growth and evolution of new industries have been postulated theoretically, and verified statistically. Commencing with the introduction of the new product, there is a "growth era" during which existing firms make substantial profits and new producers enter the market, then follows a "shakeout period" when prices and profitability decrease and some firms leave the market. Finally a "mature era" prevails, during which a stabilization in both prices and the number of firms occurs. These stages have been observed in the adoption of steam power, diesel locomotives, computers, and in a general cross-section of new industrial products. During the evolution of the industry, firms gain more information about the market in which they are operating, for example demand for the product, and about the actions of other firms in the same market. This added information influences the firms' decisions concerning investment in new production processes, output capacity, and hiring. Gaining an understanding of the evolutionary process of industries and the diffusion of new technologies holds the promise of increasing our knowledge about productivity, investment in research and development, and industrial innovation.