Vintage-Capital, Distortions and Development

这个项目提高了我们对经济因素如何影响各国收入差异的理解。研究的重点将是在“复古资本”的背景下采用新技术。复古资本是这样一种情况：只有体现新技术的新机器投入使用，新技术才能得以实施。这与同质资本的情况不同，在同质资本的情况下，技术进步可以在不购买新机器的情况下得到利用。复古资本更难处理，这就是许多分析集中在同质资本上的原因。本文的研究主题是：vintage capital模型具有可管理性和经验性，其表现优于同质资本模型。特别是，它们可以更好地解释收入差距和导致这种差距的特定机制。最近，经济学文献中提出，文化和其他非经济因素可以解释各国之间的大量收入差异。这个项目的论点是，一个精心设计的经济模型将会做得很好，而不必求助于这种非经济解释。具体来说，本项目分析了体现技术进步和复古资本的模型。目的是确定对采用新技术的扭曲会在多大程度上阻碍经济增长。扭曲被广泛理解：它们可能是购买机器的税收和关税，对结构和生产设施建设的官僚主义障碍，延误，腐败，繁文缛节等。该项目构建了一个定量模型，能够提供有关这种扭曲影响的数字结果：扭曲在多大程度上抑制了投资、一个国家的资本存量、制造商的采用决策、工人的工资和一个国家的GDP。该项目采用三管齐下的方法。首先，构建了个体企业采用新技术的理论模型。考虑到许多这样的公司，该模型将被汇总以产生国民收入统计的理论对应物。其次，模型的参数使用美国国民收入数据进行校准。研究者还使用国际数据对模型的生产函数进行了计量经济学估计。这两个步骤提供了一个定量模型，旨在预测扭曲会在多大程度上抑制经济增长。第三，该项目考虑到不同国家存在不同的扭曲，然后确定模型对其GDP的预测。研究者进行发展分解练习，确定扭曲、教育水平和效率如何解释各国之间的GDP差异。

This project improves our understanding of how economic factors affect income differences across countries. The focus of the research will be on the adoption of new technology in a "vintage capital" context. Vintage capital is a scenario whereby new technology can be implemented only if new machines that embody it are brought on line. This is different from the scenario of homogeneous capital, where technological progress can be exploited without the purchase of new machines. Vintage capital is quite a bit harder to deal with, which is the reason that many analyses have focused on homogenous capital. The thesis of this research is that models of vintage capital can be made manageable and empirically operational, and that they perform much better than models of homogenous capital. In particular they can explain income gaps and the particular mechanisms that lead to such gaps much better. Of late there have been suggestions in the economic literature that cultural and other non-economic factors explain a great deal of income differences across countries. The thesis of this project is that a carefully crafted economic model will do quite well without having to resort to such non-economic explanations.More specifically, this project analyzes models of embodied technological progress and vintage capital. The objective is to determine the extent to which distortions to the adoption of new technology can block economic growth. Distortions are broadly understood: They could be taxes and tariffs on the purchase of machines, bureaucratic impediments to the construction of structures and production facilities, delays, corruption, red tape, etc. The project constructs a quantitative model, capable of delivering numerical results concerning the effects of such distortions: To what extent distortions stifle investments, the capital stock of a country, the adoption decisions of manufacturers, wages of workers, and the GDP of a country. The project pursues a three-pronged approach. First, a theoretical model of the adoption of new technology by individual firms is constructed. Considering many such firms the model will then be aggregated to yield the theoretical counterparts of National Income statistics. Second, the model's parameters are calabrated using U.S. National Income data. The investigator also estimates econometrically the model's production function, using international data. These two steps provide a quantitative model, which is designed to predict the extent to which distortions can stifle the growth of an economy. Third, the project considers different countries as having different distortions and then determine what the model predicts will happen to their GDP. The investigator performs development decomposition exercises, determining how distortions, educational levels and efficiencies account for GDP differences across countries.