The evolution of collective decision-making from childhood to adulthood: markets, networks and institutions

成人和儿童往往在看似简单的两人互动中努力实现最佳结果。这种模式是由未纠正的倾向和发展缺陷引起的，这些倾向和缺陷受到认知偏差和局限性的严重影响。更耐人寻味的发现是，成年人在较少指导的情况下，在较大和看似更复杂的情况下表现得更好。一些证据表明，在这样的环境中，行为可能至少在一定程度上依赖于认知程度较低、更注重情感能力的技能，比如感知和解释情绪和意图。有趣的是，几项关于市场交易的研究表明，不同年龄的孩子也往往会获得有利的资产。这一观察表明，支持群体行为的技能可能是很早就发展起来的，甚至是与生俱来的。这项新的研究探索了决策的发展轨迹和市场和网络等“小社会”的综合成果。它还旨在揭示在这些环境中支撑决策的认知和非认知技能。通过解开群体内部决策的复杂性，这项研究将增强我们对人类行为的理解，并阐明为什么群体情况对人类来说比两人互动更直观，这是矛盾的。此外，它还将有助于确定指导我们决策过程的技能，使我们能够取得有利的结果。此外，这项研究将确定这些技能随着年龄的增长而演变的程度。这些发现有可能为决策、教育和社会结构提供信息，从而在促进个人成长和发展的同时促进更好的集体成果。这项研究将使用实验技术来测试从儿童到成年的行为发展，包括四个范例，同时评估他们的认知和情感技能。为了能够在不同年龄组之间进行有意义的比较，将制定一种方法，以确保参与者充分了解他们将在其中做出决定的群体的结构。具体地说，这项研究将考察四种范式。首先，它将研究涉及大宗商品和货币的市场中的交易行为，旨在了解不同年龄段观察到的交易所类型，以及交易摩擦、清算价格和最终配置。受试者将参与一个交易游戏，在游戏中，他们可以交换和购买商品。这项实验还将衡量玩家之间的通信技术如何促进交流。其次，这项研究将探索信息是如何以大群组的形式聚集在一起的，在大群组中，个人只能观察他们的直系亲属所做的选择。这一设置将捕捉社交网络中的信息交换。通过改变信息结构，该实验将探索影响人们对特定类型新闻的权重的因素，以及从当地信息推断一般知识的能力(或缺乏)。第三，这项研究将分析儿童在社会学习环境中的行为，在社会学习环境中，个人获得信号，他们必须从同龄人的行为(而不是信号)中提取信息。它将研究不同年龄段的儿童是否做出合理的推理。最后，该项目将调查儿童如何聚合同龄人的顺序偏好，并将他们的选择与多数主义、博尔达和反多元化等既定规则进行比较。对于每一种范式，这项研究还将调查结果和技能之间的关系，旨在衡量认知和情感发展对决策的影响。此外，这项研究将比较不同环境因素(如经济状况或学校课程)的人群的结果、技能及其相互作用。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Adults and children often struggle to achieve optimal outcomes in seemingly simple two-person interactions. This pattern arises from uncorrected tendencies and developmental shortcomings, which are heavily influenced by cognitive biases and limitations. Even more intriguing is the finding that adults perform better in larger and seemingly more complex situations with less guidance. Some evidence suggests that behavior in such environments may rely, at least partly, on skills that are less cognitive and more focused on affective abilities like perceiving and interpreting emotions and intentions. Interestingly, several studies on market trading have shown that children of different ages also tend to reach outcomes with favorable properties. This observation suggests the possibility that the skills supporting behavior in groups may develop early or even be innate. This new research explores the developmental trajectory of decision-making and aggregate outcomes within “small societies” such as markets and networks. It also aims to uncover the cognitive and non-cognitive skills that underpin decision-making in these environments. By unraveling the complexities of decision-making within groups, this research will enhance our understanding of human behavior and shed light on why group situations are, paradoxically, more intuitive to humans than two-person interactions. Additionally, it will help identify the skills that guide our decision-making processes, enabling us to reach favorable outcomes. Furthermore, the research will ascertain the extent to which these skills evolve with age. These findings hold the potential to inform policymaking, education, and societal structures, thereby fostering improved collective outcomes while promoting individual growth and development. The study will employ experimental techniques to test the development of behavior from childhood to adulthood across four paradigms while assessing their cognitive and affective skills. To allow for meaningful comparisons across age groups, a methodology will be developed to ensure participants fully understand the structure of the groups in which they will make decisions. Specifically, the research will investigate four paradigms. Firstly, it will examine trade behavior in markets involving commodities and money, aiming to understand the types of exchanges observed at different ages, as well as trading frictions, clearing prices, and final allocations. Subjects will participate in a trading game, in which they can exchange and purchase goods. The experiment will also measure how communication technologies between players facilitate exchange. Secondly, the study will explore how information is aggregated in large groups, where individuals can only observe the choices made by their immediate "neighbors". The setting will capture the exchange of information in social networks. By varying the information structure, the experiment will explore factors that impact the weight people put to specific kinds of news, and the ability (or lack of) to infer general knowledge from local information. Thirdly, the study will analyze children's behavior in social learning environments, where individuals obtain signals, and they must extract information from the actions (not the signals) of their peers. It will study whether children of different ages make rational inferences. Lastly, the project will investigate how children aggregate the ordinal preferences of their peers and compare their choices with established rules such as majoritarianism, Borda, and antiplurality. For each paradigm, the research will also investigate the relationship between outcomes and skills, aiming to measure the influence of cognitive and affective development on decision-making. Additionally, the study will compare outcomes, skills, and their interplay across populations that differ in environmental factors such as economic status or school curricula.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.