Unemployment Insurance, Recall, and Econometric Duration Models

这项研究由三个密切相关的实证项目组成，重点是失业保险和裁员-召回过程。与实证工作相结合的是计量经济学研究的一个理论组成部分，旨在开发和测试计量经济学久期模型的估计器，该模型应用广泛，对先验假设不那么敏感。第一个项目考察了因临时裁员和召回预期对失业时间的影响而导致的失业人数比例。第二个涉及对几个州正在进行的再就业奖金实验的分析。这些实验为快速找到工作的UI索赔人提供了大笔金钱奖励。第三个项目分析了一个数据集，该数据集匹配了来自八个州的五年纵向UI历史，其中包含385,000个咒语与公司的信息。失业保险是一项重要而昂贵的社会福利计划。1985年，有260万人领取了失业保险，费用超过150亿美元。大量的理论工作表明，(UI)计划对工人和公司的行为都有重大影响。这项研究的目的是更好地了解这些影响，并开发技术来更好地估计其中一些影响的程度。本研究由三个密切相关的实证项目组成，重点研究失业保险的效果。第一个研究考察了就业障碍对接受工作的抑制作用，以及期望在寻找新工作时被重新雇用的影响。第二项研究考察了一组新的社会实验，这些实验旨在寻找减少典型失业时期的方法，从而减少UI计划的成本。这些实验向在指定时间内找到工作的人提供特别奖金。第三个项目将使用一个独特的数据集来分析UI福利和税收对工人和公司行为的影响。

The research consists of three closely related empirical projects focusing on Unemployment Insurance (UI) and the layoff-recall process. In conjunction with the empirical work is a theoretical component of econometric research, aimed at developing and testing estimators for econometric duration models, which have broad application and are less sensitive to a priori assumptions. The first project examines the fraction of the unemployment of UI recipients arising because of temporary layoffs and the effects of recall expectations on unemployment spells. The second involves the analysis of re-employment bonus experiments that are being conducted in several states. These experiments provide large monetary awards to UI claimants who find jobs quickly. The third project analyzes a data set that matches five years of longitudinal UI histories from eight states containing 385,000 spells with information about firms. %%% Unemployment Insurance (UI) is an important and expensive social welfare program. In 1985, 2.6 million people received unemployment insurance at a cost of over 15 billion dollars. Substantial theoretical work indicates that the (UI) program has major effects on the behavior of both workers and firms. The purpose of this research is to better understand these effects and to develope techniques to better estimate the magnitude of some of these effects. This research consists of three closely related empirical project focusing on the effects of Unemployment Insurance. The first examines the disincentive effects of UI on taking a job and the effect of expecting to be rehired on looking for a new job. The second examines a new group of social experiments which are designed to find ways of reducing the typical period of unemployment and, thus, UI program costs. These experiments offer special bonus payments to people who find work within a specified period of time. The third project will use a unique data set to analyze the effects of UI benefits and taxes on the behavior of workers and firms.