Unemployment Insurance, Recall, and Econometric Duration Models

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The research consists of three closely related empirical projects focusing on Unemployment Insurance (UI) and the layoff-recall process. In conjunction with the empirical work is a theoretical component of econometric research, aimed at developing and testing estimators for econometric duration models, which have broad application and are less sensitive to a priori assumptions. The first project examines the fraction of the unemployment of UI recipients arising because of temporary layoffs and the effects of recall expectations on unemployment spells. The second involves the analysis of re-employment bonus experiments that are being conducted in several states. These experiments provide large monetary awards to UI claimants who find jobs quickly. The third project analyzes a data set that matches five years of longitudinal UI histories from eight states containing 385,000 spells with information about firms. %%% Unemployment Insurance (UI) is an important and expensive social welfare program. In 1985, 2.6 million people received unemployment insurance at a cost of over 15 billion dollars. Substantial theoretical work indicates that the (UI) program has major effects on the behavior of both workers and firms. The purpose of this research is to better understand these effects and to develope techniques to better estimate the magnitude of some of these effects. This research consists of three closely related empirical project focusing on the effects of Unemployment Insurance. The first examines the disincentive effects of UI on taking a job and the effect of expecting to be rehired on looking for a new job. The second examines a new group of social experiments which are designed to find ways of reducing the typical period of unemployment and, thus, UI program costs. These experiments offer special bonus payments to people who find work within a specified period of time. The third project will use a unique data set to analyze the effects of UI benefits and taxes on the behavior of workers and firms.