The Effects of Welfare and Taxes

福利和税收的影响

• 批准号: 9809425
• 负责人: Bruce Meyer
• 金额: $ 22.7万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1998-07-01 至 2002-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9809425&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Effects; Welfare; Taxes

This research involves two projects and several extensions.. The first examines the effects of recent welfare and tax changes on the labor supply and program participation of single mothers. A wide range of programs: federal and state Earned Income Tax Credits (EITCs), AFDC, Food Stamps, Medicaid, Child Care, and AFOC training programs is analyzed. Also analyzed is the period, 1984 1996, and at least two large micro data sets. In the past ten years there have been large, often unprecedented changes in these programs. There have also been unprecedented changes in the employment of single mothers, the primary group affected by these policies, that seem to be in large part due to these policy changes. The current work focuses mostly on policy effects on employment and to a lesser extent hours worked. In addition, focus is directed on hours worked, the effects of the program changes on program participation, and other outcomes. This first project encompasses in scope and time period much of the previous literature. Many of the large policy changes that are examined have not been previously studied and they offer an opportunity to evaluate a wide range of incentive effects. The second large project analyzes the migration of welfare prone populations. There are very large differences across states in the generosity of welfare programs. The possibility of migration has an important influence on state policies and affects the well being of recipients. The extent of migration is important in assessing the biases in much research on welfare programs that uses cross state program differences to identify policy effects. This area of research has produced strongly conflicting results. Even in the absence of the conflicting results, much of the past research has important methodological flaws which call their results into question. Some of these methodological problems have been previously recognized, while others have not The extent of welfare induced migration is examined using several large micro data sets and alternative approaches. Both of these projects have important methodological components. Both comparison group based methods.(sometimes called quasi experimental methods or natural experiments) and structural approaches are used. The work will elucidate the identifying assumptions and advantages and disadvantages of both structural and comparison group-based methods. In some cases, it is possible to integrate the best aspects of both approaches by estimating a structural model with transparent and plausibly exogenous sources of identifying variation. The research also will probe some of the reasons for the conflicting results of previous work.

本研究涉及两个项目和几个扩展。第一个研究的影响，最近的福利和税收的变化对劳动力供应和计划的参与单身母亲。广泛的方案：分析了联邦和州的所得税抵免（EITC）、AFDC、食品券、医疗补助、儿童保育和AFOC培训计划。还分析了期间，1984 - 1996年，至少有两个大的微观数据集。在过去的十年里，这些计划发生了巨大的，往往是前所未有的变化。受这些政策影响的主要群体----单身母亲的就业也发生了前所未有的变化，这似乎在很大程度上是由于这些政策变化。目前的工作主要侧重于政策对就业的影响，并在较小程度上侧重于工作时间。此外，重点是针对工作时间，计划的变化对计划参与的影响，以及其他成果。这第一个项目包括在范围和时间周期的许多以前的文献。所审查的许多重大政策变化以前没有研究过，它们提供了一个机会，以评估广泛的激励效应。 第二个大型项目分析了倾向于福利的人口的移徙。在福利计划的慷慨程度上，各州之间存在很大差异。移徙的可能性对国家政策有重要影响，并影响到接受者的福利。移民的程度是很重要的，在评估偏见的福利计划，使用跨州的计划差异，以确定政策效果的研究。这一研究领域产生了强烈矛盾的结果。即使没有相互矛盾的结果，过去的许多研究也存在重要的方法论缺陷，这使他们的结果受到质疑。这些方法的问题，有些以前已经认识到，而其他人没有福利引起的移民的程度进行检查，使用几个大的微观数据集和替代方法。 这两个项目都有重要的方法组成部分。这两种方法都是基于比较组的方法。（有时称为准实验方法或自然实验）和结构方法。这项工作将阐明结构和比较组为基础的方法的识别假设和优点和缺点。在某些情况下，有可能通过估计具有透明和可识别的外生变异来源的结构模型来整合两种方法的最佳方面。这项研究还将探讨一些原因，以前的工作相互矛盾的结果。