Enabling wider use of mechanistic models for biodiversity forecasts

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Forecasting species distributions is challenging yet necessary. The pattern-based models commonly used are error-prone. Mechanistic models, best equipped for the task, are limited by lack of data. This project aims to enable wider use of mechanistic models by developing new methods for dealing with incomplete trait data and uncertainty. It expects to generate new knowledge about how species’ traits define the environments in which they persist. Anticipated outcomes include enhanced capacity to apply mechanistic models to conservation problems, methods for communicating uncertainties and models for tens of species of immediate conservation interest. This will enable more reliable biodiversity forecasts, supporting better decision-making.