Comparing Divergent Views: The Sacco-Vanzetti Case

这一建议发展了一个著名的案例研究，即Sacco-Vanzetti审判，作为将统计语言和推理引入历史和政治事件分析的工具。从理论的角度来看，这个项目很有趣，因为它能够提供关于分歧来源的见解，并使用有关事实和价值观的冲突信息。面对对事实的相互矛盾的解释，人们对如何进行决策分析所知甚少：这一建议应该对这一重要主题有所启发。从应用的角度来看，这个项目也很有趣，因为它能够向历史学家和法律学者提供一种创新而严谨的方法来评估概率，并构建人们对事件的思考。很少使用结构化概率评估程序来解决重要的法律和历史争端：本提案应提供有关在此背景下使用贝叶斯评估程序的信息。研究人员的资格和这些主题的重要性都表明，项目的结果应该证明是有趣的，并刺激来自不同学科的研究人员。

This proposal develops a well-known case study, the Sacco-Vanzetti trial, as a vehicle for introducing the use of statistical language and reasoning into the analysis of historical and political events. The project is interesting from a theoretical perspective because of its ability to offer insights about the source of a disagreement and the use conflicting information concerning facts and values. Very little is known about how to conduct decision analyses in the face of conflicting interpretations of facts: this proposal should shed some light on this important topic. The project also is interesting from an applied perspective because of its ability to inform historians and legal scholars about an innovative and rigorous approach to assessing probabilities and structuring people's thinking about events. There has been very little use of structured probability assessment procedures to settle important legal and historical disputes: this proposal should provide information about the use of Bayesian assessment procedures in this context. Both the qualifications of the investigators and the importance of these topics suggest that the results of the project should prove to be interesting and stimulating to researchers from a diverse set of disciplines.