Comparing Divergent Views: The Sacco-Vanzetti Case

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This proposal develops a well-known case study, the Sacco-Vanzetti trial, as a vehicle for introducing the use of statistical language and reasoning into the analysis of historical and political events. The project is interesting from a theoretical perspective because of its ability to offer insights about the source of a disagreement and the use conflicting information concerning facts and values. Very little is known about how to conduct decision analyses in the face of conflicting interpretations of facts: this proposal should shed some light on this important topic. The project also is interesting from an applied perspective because of its ability to inform historians and legal scholars about an innovative and rigorous approach to assessing probabilities and structuring people's thinking about events. There has been very little use of structured probability assessment procedures to settle important legal and historical disputes: this proposal should provide information about the use of Bayesian assessment procedures in this context. Both the qualifications of the investigators and the importance of these topics suggest that the results of the project should prove to be interesting and stimulating to researchers from a diverse set of disciplines.