Models for the Use of Accident Precursor Data to Estimate Rare Event Frequencies (Decision, Risk, and Management Science)

在估计罕见事件的频率时，将研究使用事故前兆或“险情”数据的模型的应用。特别是，这项工作将侧重于在现有数据(即观察到的前兆数据或差错数据)与专家的解释大相径庭的情况下应用拟议的框架，因此专家意见对决策者提供的指导相对较少。这项工作的结果将：(1)为使用事故前兆数据估计事件频率提供一个正式程序；(2)帮助决策者评估专家对事故前兆的解释的可信度。互动活动包括在几个关于风险分析和可靠性工程的高年级本科生和研究生级别的课程中授课，参加化学和核工程系每周一次的研讨会系列，特别强调邀请其他女性工程师和科学家作为演讲者，与拥有大量女性成员的美国核学会学生分会的教师顾问，以及与当地女工程师协会的学生分会。该项目进一步推动了VPW计划的目标，即：(1)为女性提供机会，在NSF资助的工程和科学学科中发展她们的职业生涯；(2)通过提高受雇于工业、政府和学术机构的女科学家和工程师的知名度，鼓励女性追求科学和工程领域的职业生涯。通过鼓励妇女参与科学，这是对国家未来科学活力的宝贵投资。

The application of a model for the use of data on accident precursors or "near misses" will be investigated in estimating the frequencies of rare events. In particular, this work will focus on the application of the proposed framework in cases where the available data (i.e., the observed precursors or near misses) are subject to widely divergent interpretations by the experts, and as a result expert opinion provides relatively little guidance to decision makers. The results of this work will: (1) provide a formal procedure for the use of accident precursor data in estimating event frequencies; and (2) aid decision makers in evaluating the credibility of expert interpretations of accident precursors. Interactive activities include giving lectures in several senior undergraduate and graduate-level courses on risk analysis and reliability engineering, participating in the weekly seminar series of the Department of Chemical and Nuclear Engineering, with particular emphasis on inviting other women engineers and scientists as speakers, and with the faculty advisor for the student chapter of the American Nuclear Society, which has a large female membership, and with the local student chapter of the Society of Women Engineers. This project furthers VPW program objectives which are (1) to provide opportunities for women to advance their careers in engineering and in the disciplines of science supported by NSF and (2) to encourage women to pursue careers in sience and engineering by providing greater visibility for women scientists and engineers employed in industry, government, and academic institutions. By encouraging the participation of women in science, it is a valuable investment in the Nation's future scientific vitality.