Computational Approaches to Econometrics and Economic Modelling

这项研究的目的是使计量经济学和经济学模型能够更好地描述经济行为，从而更好地回答私营和公共部门决策者面临的问题。该项目将涉及重新表述统计推断和优化方面的问题，这是受到广泛可用的计算能力最近进展的启发并使之成为可能的。研究方法在定义和激励经济分析和计量经济学的问题、计算实验和新分析工具的开发之间反复进行。在经济建模中，重点是从决策规则到目标函数的数值映射。这种发展在很大程度上是在特定问题的背景下进行的，包括季节性调整、宏观经济时间序列的非结构性表示、协整模型、非线性或理性预期模型的求解，这些模型是通用的和算法的，因此可以系统地用于研究广泛的问题。这项研究以及其他人在未来十年的相关研究将使经济学家能够更直接地解决政策问题，重点将从分析方法的限制转向对行为的极大丰富的建模。

The purpose of this research is to enable econometric and economic models to better represent economic behavior and, thus, provide better answers to questions confronting decision makers in the private and public sectors. The project will involve the reformulation of problems in statistical inference and optimization, inspired and made possible by recent advances in widely available computational capacity. Research methods iterate between the problems that define and motivate economic analysis and econometrics, computational experiments, and the development of new analytical tools. In economic modeling, the emphasis is on numerical mapping from decision rules to objective functions. Much of this development is in the context of particular problems, including seasonal adjustment, nonstructural representations of macroeconomic time series, cointegration models, the solution of nonlinear or rational expectations models that are generic and algorithmic, and can, therefore, be used systematically in studying a wide range of problems. This and related research by others over the next decade will enable economists to address policy problems much more directly, with emphasis shifting from the constraints of analytical approaches to a greatly enriched modeling of behavior.