The Decline and Resurgence of Partisanship in the House of Representatives, 1953-1988

从新政到20世纪70年代，众议院成员的政党投票率和政党忠诚度一直在下降。然而，自20世纪70年代以来，党派之争急剧卷土重来，之前的解释既没有预测到最近的变化，也没有考虑到这一变化。这项研究的目的是发展一种政党投票理论，既可以解释党派衰落，也可以解释政党复兴，并确定该理论的预测是否与众议院现有的政治证据一致。该理论的发展始于对影响一次投票选出一名成员的因素的关注。它从那里建立到考虑个人的选择最终如何结合到整个国会内关于所有问题的所有投票的总和。相关因素包括对成员偏好的影响，塑造可供选择的替代方案的制度过程，以及随着时间的推移改变问题组合的外部或内部力量。基于这一分析，有人认为，党派投票的变化取决于选举影响的变化(特别是区一级选民的重新组合和两党招募的候选人种类的变化)，取决于众议院审议的问题议程的变化，以及管理法案如何形成和如何在众议院审议的体制安排的变化。在收集数据以确定理论论点是否得到支持时，对选举影响的研究将包括分析选民对两党众议院候选人在问题上的偏好随时间的变化，以及收集过去36年来在两党内争夺众议院提名的候选人的政治立场的信息。对不断变化的问题议程的审议将包括对1953年至1988年众议院所有点名表决情况的分析，重点是问题类别内投票模式保持一致的程度。最后，对制度安排的分析将追踪委员会主席权力的减少，以及采用新规则来加强党的领导人在议员们面临的各种替代方案上的影响。研究的这一部分还考虑了特定政党领导人和特定总统对成员面临的各种选择的影响。如果国会党派之争的理论得到了证据的支持，这将需要对众议院目前关于政治冲突的概念进行重大修改，这些概念认为政党是软弱的，成员与政党的关系无关紧要。分析还将显示，即使政党和选民之间的传统联系日益薄弱，民选代表也可以表现出更大的党派色彩。最后，这一理论将能够对未来可能导致政治机构更多或更少党派之争的条件进行详细说明。

From the New Deal through the 1970s, levels of party voting and of party loyalty had declined among members of the House of Representatives. Since the 1970s, however, there has been a sharp resurgence of partisanship, and previous explanations do not anticipate or account for this recent change. The objective of this research is to develop a theory of party voting which explains both partisan decline and resurgence, and to determine whether the theory's predictions are consistent with available evidence on politics in the House. The development of the theory begins with a focus on the factors that influence the choice of a single member on a single vote. It builds from there to a consideration of the way choices of individuals eventually are combined into the aggregate of all votes on all issues within an entire Congress. The relevant factors include influences on members' preferences, institutional processes that shape alternatives for choice, and outside or inside forces that vary the mix of issues over time. Based on this analysis, it is argued that the variations in partisan voting depend on changes in electoral influences (particularly realignment of voters at the district level and changes in the kinds of candidates recruited by the two parties), on changes in the agenda of issues considered by the House, and on alterations of the institutional arrangements that govern how bills are shaped and how they are considered on the House floor. In marshalling data to determine whether the theoretical arguments are supported, the study of electoral influences will include analysis over time of changes in the issue preferences of voters for House candidates of the two parties, and collection of information on the political positions of candidates competing for House nominations within each party over the last 36 years. The consideration of the changing issue agenda will include analysis of all roll calls on the House floor from 1953 through 1988, focusing on the degree to which voting patterns remain consistent within issue categories. Finally, the analysis of institutional arrangements will trace the impact of decreases in the power of committee chairmen and the adoption of new rules to strengthen party leaders on the kinds of alternatives members are faced with on the floor. This segment of the study also considers the influence of particular party leaders and particular presidents on the kinds of choices members confronted. If the theory of congressional partisanship is supported by the evidence, it will require a significant revision in the current conceptions of political conflict in the House, which regard political parties to be weak and member ties to them of little importance. The analysis will also show how greater partisanship can be exhibited by elected representatives even when traditional ties between parties and voters are growing progressively weaker. Finally, the theory will enable a specification of the conditions which are likely to lead to greater or lesser partisanship in political institutions in the future.