The Decline and Resurgence of Partisanship in the House of Representatives, 1953-1988

1953-1988 年众议院党派之争的衰落与复兴

• 批准号: 8909884
• 负责人: David Rohde
• 金额: $ 9.78万
• 依托单位: Michigan State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1989
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1989-07-01 至 1991-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8909884&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Decline; Resurgence; Partisanship; House; Representatives

From the New Deal through the 1970s, levels of party voting and of party loyalty had declined among members of the House of Representatives. Since the 1970s, however, there has been a sharp resurgence of partisanship, and previous explanations do not anticipate or account for this recent change. The objective of this research is to develop a theory of party voting which explains both partisan decline and resurgence, and to determine whether the theory's predictions are consistent with available evidence on politics in the House. The development of the theory begins with a focus on the factors that influence the choice of a single member on a single vote. It builds from there to a consideration of the way choices of individuals eventually are combined into the aggregate of all votes on all issues within an entire Congress. The relevant factors include influences on members' preferences, institutional processes that shape alternatives for choice, and outside or inside forces that vary the mix of issues over time. Based on this analysis, it is argued that the variations in partisan voting depend on changes in electoral influences (particularly realignment of voters at the district level and changes in the kinds of candidates recruited by the two parties), on changes in the agenda of issues considered by the House, and on alterations of the institutional arrangements that govern how bills are shaped and how they are considered on the House floor. In marshalling data to determine whether the theoretical arguments are supported, the study of electoral influences will include analysis over time of changes in the issue preferences of voters for House candidates of the two parties, and collection of information on the political positions of candidates competing for House nominations within each party over the last 36 years. The consideration of the changing issue agenda will include analysis of all roll calls on the House floor from 1953 through 1988, focusing on the degree to which voting patterns remain consistent within issue categories. Finally, the analysis of institutional arrangements will trace the impact of decreases in the power of committee chairmen and the adoption of new rules to strengthen party leaders on the kinds of alternatives members are faced with on the floor. This segment of the study also considers the influence of particular party leaders and particular presidents on the kinds of choices members confronted. If the theory of congressional partisanship is supported by the evidence, it will require a significant revision in the current conceptions of political conflict in the House, which regard political parties to be weak and member ties to them of little importance. The analysis will also show how greater partisanship can be exhibited by elected representatives even when traditional ties between parties and voters are growing progressively weaker. Finally, the theory will enable a specification of the conditions which are likely to lead to greater or lesser partisanship in political institutions in the future.

从新政到20世纪70年代，众议院议员的党派投票水平和党派忠诚度都有所下降。然而，自20世纪70年代以来，党派之争急剧抬头，以前的解释没有预料到或解释最近的这种变化。本研究的目的是发展一种解释党派衰落和复兴的政党投票理论，并确定该理论的预测是否与众议院政治的现有证据一致。该理论的发展始于对影响单个成员在一次投票中选择的因素的关注。它以此为基础，考虑到个人的选择最终如何被纳入整个国会对所有问题的所有投票的总和。相关因素包括对成员偏好的影响，形成选择方案的制度过程，以及随时间变化问题组合的外部或内部力量。根据这一分析，有人认为，党派投票的变化取决于选举影响的变化（特别是在地区一级选民的重新调整和两党招募的候选人种类的变化），取决于众议院审议问题议程的变化，以及决定法案如何制定和如何在众议院审议的制度安排的改变。在整理数据以确定理论论点是否得到支持时，对选举影响的研究将包括分析选民对两党众议院候选人的问题偏好随时间的变化，以及收集过去36年来两党众议院提名候选人的政治立场信息。对不断变化的议题议程的审议将包括分析众议院从1953年到1988年的所有唱名，重点是在议题类别内投票模式保持一致的程度。最后，对制度安排的分析将追踪委员会主席权力的减少和采用新规则以加强政党领导人对议员在议会上面临的替代选择的影响。这部分研究还考虑了特定政党领导人和特定总统对成员面临的各种选择的影响。如果国会党派之争的理论得到证据的支持，它将需要对目前众议院政治冲突的概念进行重大修订，这些概念认为政党是软弱的，成员与他们的关系不重要。分析还将显示，即使在政党和选民之间的传统联系日益减弱的情况下，当选代表如何表现出更大的党派偏见。最后，这一理论将使未来可能导致政治制度中或多或少的党派之争的条件具体化。