Collaborative Research on the Political Economy of Military Spending in the Developing World

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Studies of military spending and arms accumulation in less developed countries have concentrated on arms races. Arms races in the developing world have been especially violent and deadly. This investigation will amplify our understanding of military spending patterns in the developing world by also examining the specific ways in which decision-makers in the developing world use the military budget to help control their economies and to augment their internal political support. These aspects of defense policy making have been shown to be important in Western industrialized societies, but rarely studied in the context of a developing society. In essence, the researchers will be testing these ideas for eight developing nations that are significant arms producers to explore whether the interplay between domestic political and economic concerns, that helps to determine military spending policy in the industrialized world, also apply more generally around the globe. More specifically, a great deal is already known about defense-welfare tradeoffs in Western democracies, but, how, if at all, does this tradeoff operate in the developing world. Systematic, in depth case studies for the political economy of military spending in India, South Korea, Taiwan, Israel, Egypt, Argentina and Brazil, and South Africa will be conducted. A small computer simulation of the relevant mathematical dynamics in each society will be developed drawing on the insights from prior work. Data for each nation in the study will then be used to "test" the statistical validity of the hypothesized relationships. These data will consist of quantitative information about arms expenditures, arms productions, arms sales, the size of the armed forces, war casualties, et. cetera. Economic data such as GNP, inflation rates, corporate profits, governmental deficits will also be used in addition to information about the domestic political situation in each society. Much like models of the economy, these models will permit different policy scenarios to be explored. Successful completion of this research should embellish our understanding of defense spending in the developing world - - where according to one estimate, roughly 16 million lives have been lost to warfare during the past 40 years.