Redistributional Effects of Metropolitan Population Movements

随着家庭在不同的住房单元之间迁移，大都市人口的地理格局也发生了变化。随着时间的推移，这些变化对居民的位置以及为这些居民服务的服务和设施产生了深远的影响。同样重要的是，这些变化也改变了住房单元本身的性质和质量。地理学家和其他学者从家庭的角度对住宅流动进行了相当多的关注，但相对较少的研究强调了家庭流动对住房单元的影响。本项目将利用1974年至1986年间收集的美国住房调查的纵向数据，分析美国10个大都市的流动性及其相关因素。研究将集中在两个主要问题上：(1)随着城市总体流动性水平的变化，城市内部的居住流动性模式如何变化？(2)城市内部流动水平和模式的变化对居住人口的地理分布有何影响？描述住房住户的流动性和人口特征的变量以及反映住房次级市场构成的相关变量将被纳入一个logit模型，以便检验与这两个中心问题有关的若干假设。这项研究的结果从学术和实践的角度来看都是重要的。在基础研究方面，该项目将为了解地方流动性与大都市内不断变化的社会经济和人口模式之间的关系提供更坚实的基础，并将澄清家庭和住房单位之间的关系。这些新的认识也将为分析特定城市不断演变的住宅结构提供更坚实的基础，从而使公民领导人能够更好地评估各种政策可能产生的影响。

As households move among housing units, the geographic patterns of metropolitan populations change. Over time, these changes have profound impacts on the location of residents and of the services and facilities that serve those residents. Equally important, those changes also alter the character and quality of the housing units themselves. Considerable attention has been focused by geographers and other scholars on residential mobility from the perspective of households, but relatively little research has highlighted the ways in which movements of households have affected housing units. This project will analyze mobility and related factors for ten American metropolises using longitudinal data from the American Housing Survey collected between 1974 and 1986. The research will focus on two major questions: (1) How do patterns of residential mobility within metropolises change as the overall level of mobility changes? and (2) What are the impacts of changing levels and patterns of mobility within metropolises on the geographic distributions of residential populations? Variables describing the mobility and demographic characteristics of households occupying housing units and of related variables reflecting the constitution of housing submarkets will be fit into a logit model in order to test a number of hypotheses related to the two central questions. The results of this research will be significant from both scholarly and practical standpoints. In terms of basic research, the project will provide a firmer basis for understanding the relationship between local mobility and the changing socioeconomic and demographic patterns of populations within metropolises, and it will clarify the relationship between households and housing units. These new understandings will also provide a firmer foundation for analyses of the evolving residential structure of specific cities, thereby enabling civic leaders to better assess the possible impacts of various policies.