Short-Term Tropical Climate Variability

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Three research thrusts are included in this project: a) time variation and maintenance of the planetary-scale divergent circulation with seasonal and intraseasonal time scales; b) low-frequency variability of the atmospheric rotational circulation associated with the Indian monsoon life cycle, blocking, and the 1982-1983 El Nino/Southern Oscillation event; and c) long-range forecast of the Indian monsoon with a statistical- empirical scheme. The 1978-1987 outgoing longwave radiation and operational data generated by the global data assimilation systems of the National Meteorological Center and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts will be used. A multilevel, baroclinic, linear primitive-equation model will also be applied to supplement the diagnostic analysis proposed in the second research thrust. This research is important because it seeks to enhance understanding of climate variability on time scales important to social-economic activities.