区域碳交易试点的运行机制及其经济影响研究---基于Term-Co2模型

在"十二五"规划中，我国明确提出了要逐步建立碳交易市场，大力推进市场化方式减排的目标。目前，主要的交易试点区域基本上都已经正式上线。随着碳交易的推进，究竟对试点区域宏观经济是否会有影响以及会有怎样的影响，是否会影响到各产业的竞争力等一系列问题引起了政府的广泛关注。但是，学界在这方面的定量分析和影响评估却仍处于空白。 本研究将定量分析区域碳交易市场实施的经济和产业影响。一方面，通过调研的方式分析试点地区碳交易市场运行现状和存在的问题；另一方面，构建包含排放模块的中国多区域CGE模型，采用模型对区域的宏观经济和产业影响进行定量评估。通过模拟不同行业之间的交易，测算行业之间的减排成本差异以及碳交易市场的直接影响和溢出效应。在增强和优化当前碳市场政策设计科学性的同时，也为我国碳市场发展的推进提供科学依据和政策参考。

The Chinese government made a clear statement on establishing the pilot carbon trading market and boosting the market-oriented methods of emission reduction in the planning of the 12th Five-Year plan. At present, all of the main pilot regions of carbon trading have already been activated. Hence what kind of economic impact the pilot carbon trading will bring, and whether the pilot will injure the industrial competitiveness has drawn the attention of both the society and the government. However, few relevant quantitative research or impact evaluations are found by now, which are the main purpose of this research. On one hand, the potential problems of the pilot is analyzed by investigate and survey. On the other hand, a Multi-regional CGE model of China with carbon trading module is built to launch a quantitative analysis of the macroeconomic impact and the industrial impact. What is more, the cost variance of different industries, the direct impact and overflow effect of the pilot are both calculated by simulation carbon trading between industries. This research not only optimizes the policy design of carbon trading, but also does a contribution to provide the pilot with scientific evidences and references.