The Theory of Government Coalitions

在这项研究中，研究者提出了一种新的联盟形成理论，以理解政府在多党议会民主中组建的过程。关于联合理论的文献非常丰富，可以追溯到三十多年前。然而，到目前为止，这些文献还没有抓住这样一个事实，即政府联盟不同于一般的联盟——政府的组建与通过立法法案或分蛋糕是一个大不相同的事件。后一种情况可能被认为是“终局”——一旦法案通过或蛋糕分了，生意基本上就完成了。然而，在组建政府方面，政治进程才刚刚开始。因此，在考虑政府组建时，很重要的一点是，要考虑到行为者对政府成立后会发生什么的理性信念和期望。这一观察结果使首席研究员能够制定一个由选举产生的各党派进行战略谈判的理论。他们的目标是组建政府，这一行动需要议会的多数支持。各方对组建新政府的提议表示支持或反对，取决于他们对组建这一组政党而不是组建那一组政党会产生什么结果的看法。但这些关于未来的信念从何而来？这是研究人员研究的关键方面。他们定义并详细阐述了可信承诺的概念，并利用这一概念发展了一种理论，说明人民议会中的各种力量是如何联合起来组成政府的。除了对基础知识的贡献之外，随着世界上越来越多的地方转向议会机构，许多（而不仅仅是两个）政党争夺权力和政府领导权，这项研究具有实际意义。

In this research the investigators propose a new theory of coalition formation in order to understand the process by which governments are assembled in multiparty parliamentary democracies. The literature on coalition theory is a rich one, extending back more than thirty years. To date, however, this literature has not come to grips with the fact that government coalitions are different from coalitions in general - - that the forming of a government is a vastly different event from that of passing a legislative bill or dividing up a pie. These latter events may be thought of as "terminal" - - once a bill is passed or a pie divided, business is essentially done. In forming a government, however, the processes of politics have only just begun. Thus, in thinking about government formation, it is essential that one incorporate the rational beliefs and expectations of the actors concerning what will happen once the government is installed. This observation allows the Principal Investigator to formulate a theory of strategic bargaining by the various parties elected to a popular assembly. Their objective is to form a government, which action requires a majority vote of support in the assembly. The various actors couch their support or opposition to a proposal for a new government in terms of their beliefs of what results will flow from installing this group of parties as opposed to that group of parties. But where are these beliefs about the future to come from? This is the crucial aspect of the research by the investigators. They define and elaborate the notion of credible promises and use this concept to develop a theory of how the various forces inside a popular assembly combine to form a government. Besides its contribution to basic knowledge, this research is of pactical significance as more and more parts of the world turn to parliamentary institutions in which many (rather than just two) parties contest for power and governmental leadership.