The Theory of Government Coalitions

在这项研究中，研究人员提出了一种新的联盟形成理论，以了解在多党议会民主政体中组建政府的过程。关于联盟理论的文献非常丰富，可以追溯到30多年前。然而，到目前为止，这些文献还没有理解这样一个事实，即政府联盟不同于一般的联盟--组建政府与通过立法法案或瓜分馅饼是截然不同的事件。后一种情况可能被认为是“末日事件”--一旦法案获得通过或馅饼被瓜分，交易就基本上完成了。然而，在组建政府方面，政治进程才刚刚开始。因此，在思考政府的形成时，一个人必须考虑到行为者关于一旦政府成立后会发生什么的理性信念和期望。这一观察结果使首席调查员能够提出一种理论，即当选为人民大会成员的各政党之间的战略谈判。他们的目标是组建政府，这一行动需要议会中的多数票支持。不同的行为者根据他们对组建这组政党而不是那组政党将产生什么结果的信念，表达了他们对新政府提案的支持或反对。但是，这些关于未来的信念从何而来？这是调查人员研究的关键方面。他们定义并阐述了可信承诺的概念，并利用这一概念发展了一种理论，即一个受欢迎的议会内部的各种力量如何联合起来组成政府。除了对基本知识的贡献外，这项研究还具有战略意义，因为世界上越来越多的地区转向议会机构，在议会机构中，许多(而不仅仅是两个)政党争夺权力和政府领导权。

In this research the investigators propose a new theory of coalition formation in order to understand the process by which governments are assembled in multiparty parliamentary democracies. The literature on coalition theory is a rich one, extending back more than thirty years. To date, however, this literature has not come to grips with the fact that government coalitions are different from coalitions in general - - that the forming of a government is a vastly different event from that of passing a legislative bill or dividing up a pie. These latter events may be thought of as "terminal" - - once a bill is passed or a pie divided, business is essentially done. In forming a government, however, the processes of politics have only just begun. Thus, in thinking about government formation, it is essential that one incorporate the rational beliefs and expectations of the actors concerning what will happen once the government is installed. This observation allows the Principal Investigator to formulate a theory of strategic bargaining by the various parties elected to a popular assembly. Their objective is to form a government, which action requires a majority vote of support in the assembly. The various actors couch their support or opposition to a proposal for a new government in terms of their beliefs of what results will flow from installing this group of parties as opposed to that group of parties. But where are these beliefs about the future to come from? This is the crucial aspect of the research by the investigators. They define and elaborate the notion of credible promises and use this concept to develop a theory of how the various forces inside a popular assembly combine to form a government. Besides its contribution to basic knowledge, this research is of pactical significance as more and more parts of the world turn to parliamentary institutions in which many (rather than just two) parties contest for power and governmental leadership.