Expert Systems for Parameter Estimation in Pollutant Transport-and-Fate Modeling

污染物迁移和归宿建模中参数估计的专家系统

• 批准号: 8921227
• 负责人: Robert Wolpert
• 金额: $ 14.65万
• 依托单位: Duke University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1990
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1990-04-15 至 1993-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8921227&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Expert; Systems; Parameter; Estimation; Pollutant

This proposal outlines an ambitious effort to investigate state- of-the-art modeling technology in the context of a practical problem with national consequences. Risk management decisions in toxicology, health policy, environmental management, and related fields are often supported by complex mathematical models. These models are intended to predict the consequences of each alternative course of action. The model predictions depend on values specified by the potential users. However, these values are often not known with certainty. In failing to reflect uncertainty in parameter specification, the models may lead to inappropriate risk management decisions. The investigators propose to apply a set of hierarchical Bayesian methods to characterize uncertainty in models which predict the concentration of synthetic organic chemicals in surface waters. The ultimate goal is the creation of an expert system to assist users in selecting values of parameters in risk management models. The general class of problems is an important one, but one that has only been worked on by a few investigators. The research team is well trained and well versed in the relevant analytic tools. There is every reason to believe they will complete the project they propose successfully.

这项提案概述了一项雄心勃勃的努力，以调查国家- 最先进的建模技术在一个实际的背景下， 国家后果的问题。 风险管理决策 毒理学、卫生政策、环境管理及相关 字段通常由复杂的数学模型支持。 这些 模型的目的是预测每种选择的后果 行动方针。 模型预测取决于指定的值 潜在的用户。 然而，这些值通常是未知的 肯定的 未能反映参数的不确定性 规范，模型可能会导致不适当的风险管理 决策 研究人员建议应用一套分层贝叶斯 方法来描述模型中的不确定性， 地表沃茨中合成有机化学品的浓度。 最终目标是建立一个专家系统， 用户选择风险管理模型中的参数值。 一般的问题是一个重要的问题，但一个有 只有几个调查员在研究 研究小组正在 受过良好培训，精通相关分析工具。 那里 有充分的理由相信他们会完成这个项目， 成功求婚