Strategy in a Clientelist and Populist Milieu: The Dynamicsof Electoral Politics in Brazil, 1978-1990

巴西目前正在完成从军事统治向完全民主制度的长期过渡。要使民主统治持续下去，立法机关必须为解决国家的关键社会和经济问题作出贡献。然而，人们越来越担心，由于一些因素，国会被削弱了：选民缺乏强烈的政党认同；代表们在国家问题上无法按照党派路线团结一致；政党领导人未能维持政党联盟；此外，代表们对分肥立法和赞助的关注。本项目通过调查巴西1978年至1990年的国会选举来关注这些问题。巴西的问题在一定程度上是巴西选举制度结构的结果。巴西的选举制度是按比例的，每个州组成一个独立的多成员区。然而，选民投票给个人，而不是政党，而各个候选人收到的选票顺序决定获胜者。这种制度结构，再加上巴西社会的庇护主义性质，鼓励许多代表将竞选活动限制在离散的州以下地区。一组代表可以代表一个政党，但他们的真正倾向是地方性的或区域性的。代表们可能非常关心为他们选区的居民带来就业机会和项目，而关于国家问题的立法对他们的连任机会变得不重要。直到最近，州级以下选举结果的缺失使严肃的分析变得不可能，但最近公布的县级选举结果使学者们开始调查这个问题。除了对1978年至1990年的四次选举结果进行统计分析外，调查人员还将就竞选战略和战术采访国会议员、记者和学者。此外，还将调查投票记录和委员会策略，以及国会议员的行为。该项目的主要目标是了解传统的庇护主义形式的社会组织如何随着时间的推移与政治机构相互作用，以及这种相互作用如何受到移民、通信媒体的扩展和交通运输的改善的影响。研究人员还调查了国会候选人面对某些制度和社会激励和约束时的策略。最后，该项目旨在进一步了解政治体制对整个拉丁美洲向民主过渡的影响，特别是就体制所鼓励的立法行为的种类而言。

Brazil is currently completing a long transition away from military rule toward a fully democratic system. For democratic rule to last, the legislature must contribute to the solution of the country's critical social and economic problems. There is increasing concern, however, that the congress is weakened due to a number of factors: the absence of strong party identification on the part of the electorate; the inability of deputies to coalesce along party lines on national issues; the failure of party leaders to maintain party coalitions; and, the focus of deputies on pork-barrel legislation and patronage. This project attends to these issues by investigating congressional elections in Brazil between 1978 and 1990. The problems in Brazil are in part the result of the institutional structure of Brazilian elections. Brazil's electoral system is proportional, with each state constituting an individual multi-member district. Voters, however, cast ballots for individuals, not parties, and the order of votes received by individual candidates determines winners. This institutional structure, coupled with the clientelistic nature of Brazilian society, encourages many deputies to restrict their campaigning to discrete sub-state regions. A group of deputies may represent a single party, but their true orientation is local or regional. Deputies may care a great deal about bringing jobs and projects to the residents of their bailiwicks, while legislation on national issues becomes unimportant to their reelection chances. Until recently, the absence of election results below the state level made serious analysis impossible, but recently released county-level results enable scholars to begin to investigate the problem. In addition to undertaking a statistical analysis of the results of the four elections between 1978 and 1990, the investigator will interview congressmen, journalists and academics about campaign strategies and tactics. In addition, voting records and committee tactics will be examined, as well as the behavior of deputies in the Congress. The major objective of the project is to understand how traditionalist clientelistic forms of societal organization interact over time with political institutions and how this interaction is affected by migration, the expansion of communications media, and improved transportation. The researchers also investigate the strategies of congressional candidates faced with certain institutional and societal incentives and constraints. Finally, the project seeks to further understanding of the impact of political institutions on the transition to democracy in Latin America as a whole, especially in terms of the kinds of legislative behavior institutions encourage.