The Dynamics of Political Attitude Formation in a Milieu of Multiple Weak Parties: A Context-Sensitive Analysis of Voting Behavior in Two Brazilian Cities

这项研究研究了新兴民主国家的选举选择的决定因素，这些国家的政党数量多，党派之争程度低，选民人数不稳定。在这样的环境下，公民如何了解问题和候选人？社会背景和经济环境如何与党派关系、意识形态倾向和媒体传递的信息相结合来塑造大众政治行为？与邻居和政治活动家的对话会产生什么影响？在这些微观基金会的选举过程中有问责制吗？这个项目测试了巴西政治态度形成和变化的综合模型，巴西是研究多党和弱党派背景下群众行为的理想国家。随着这个国家即将开始重新民主化以来的第四次总统竞选，政党的数量很多，但很稳定。尽管主要政党和许多选民之间有一个大致的左右连续体，但只有一小部分公民表达了任何党派认同。媒体在政治和技术上都很成熟，民间社会也越来越多地被动员起来。与此同时，更多的巴西人指出，与朋友、家人和同事的非正式对话是他们获取政治信息的主要来源，而不是其他任何来源。其结果是，与许多政党实力较弱的多党国家一样，巴西的竞选活动非常不稳定和不可预测。最后，巴西也是测试大众政治行为的制度来源的理想之选，因为在党派结盟、个别政党实力和选举规则方面，巴西内部存在差异。为了捕捉这些对大众政治态度的不同影响，该项目提议在2002年巴西两个城市：Juiz de Fora(米纳斯吉拉斯)和Caxias do Sui(里奥格兰德多苏伊市)的选举期间进行一项背景敏感的小组研究。社区将成为抽样单位：100名成年人将在每个城市的20个社区接受采访，这些成年人足以形成对社区的总体看法。第一波将发生在竞选活动开始之前，即3月份。第二波将在第一轮选举之前，第三波将在第二轮之后，也就是10月中旬。主要受访者的约800名《讨论伙伴》也将接受采访。同时，还将对平面媒体来源、电视新闻和党控制的电视节目进行内容分析。最后，还将采访构成每个社区“政治背景”的协会和政治组织的成员。该项目将在众多弱势政党的环境中产生第一个以理论和经验为基础的投票选择模型；也就是说，第一个模型包括所有可能影响选举行为的主要因素。由于巴西的环境与东欧和拉丁美洲的许多新兴民主国家相匹配，我们的结果将揭示民主问责、媒体和竞选影响力以及政治和社会网络在许多其他环境中的影响等问题。

This research studies the determinants of electoral choice in emerging democracies, where the number of parties is large, there is a low degree of partisanship, and volatile electorates. In such environments, how do citizens learn about issues and candidates? How do social background and economic circumstance combine with partisan ties, ideological predispositions, and media-delivered information to shape mass political behavior? What are the effects of conversations with neighbors and political activists? Is there accountability in electoral processes with these microfoundations? This project tests a comprehensive model of political attitude formation and change in Brazil, a country ideal for the study of mass behavior under multiple parties and weak partisanship. With the nation about to embark on its fourth presidential campaign since redemocratizing, the number of parties is high but stable. Although a rough left-right continuum differentiates the major parties and many voters, only a small minority of citizens expresses any partisan identification. The media are politically and technologically sophisticated, and civil society is increasingly mobilized. At the same time, more Brazilians point to informal conversations with friends, family and colleagues as their main source of political information than to any other source. The result is that Brazil, like many countries with weak, multiple parties, has very volatile and unpredictable election campaigns. Finally, Brazil is also ideal for testing the institutional sources of mass political behavior because it varies internally in terms of partisan alignments, individual party strength and electoral rules. To capture these various influences on mass political attitudes, this project proposes a context- sensitive panel study during the elections of 2002 in two Brazilian cities: Juiz de Fora (Minas Gerais) and Caxias do Sui (Rio Grande do SuI). Neighborhoods will be sampling units: 100 adults, enough to establish aggregate neighborhood opinion, will be interviewed in each of 20 neighborhoods in each city. The first wave will take place before the campaign begins, in March. The second wave will be just before the first round of the election, and the third wave will be after the second round, in the middle of October. About 800 "discussion partners" of the main respondents will also be interviewed. Concurrently, print media sources, TV news, and party-controlled TV programs will be content analyzed. Finally, members of the associations Iand political organizations that comprise each neighborhood's "political context" will be interviewed. This project will produce the first theoretically and empirically grounded model of vote choice in a milieu of numerous weak parties; that is, the first model including all the major factors potentially influencing electoral behavior. Because the Brazilian environment is matched by many emerging democracies in Eastern Europe and Latin America, our results will illuminate questions of democratic accountability, media and campaign influence, and the effects of political and social networks in many other settings as well.