The Dynamics of Political Attitude Formation in a Milieu of Multiple Weak Parties: A Context-Sensitive Analysis of Voting Behavior in Two Brazilian Cities

本研究研究了新兴民主国家中选举选择的决定因素，这些国家的政党数量众多，党派之争程度较低，选民不稳定。在这样的环境中，公民如何了解议题和候选人？社会背景和经济环境如何与党派关系、意识形态倾向和媒体传递的信息结合起来，塑造大众的政治行为？与邻居和政治活动家的对话有什么影响？这些微基金在选举过程中有问责制吗？该项目测试了巴西政治态度形成和变化的综合模型，巴西是研究多党制和弱党派关系下的大众行为的理想国家。在迎来民主化以来的第四次大选之际，政党数量虽多，但却很稳定。尽管粗略的左右连续统一体区分了主要政党和许多选民，但只有一小部分公民表达了任何党派认同。媒体在政治上和技术上都很成熟，民间社会也越来越动员起来。与此同时，越来越多的巴西人认为，与朋友、家人和同事的非正式谈话是他们获取政治信息的主要来源，而不是其他任何渠道。其结果是，巴西和许多政党弱小的国家一样，选举活动非常不稳定，难以预测。最后，巴西也是检验大众政治行为的制度来源的理想之选，因为它在党派联盟、个人政党实力和选举规则方面存在内部差异。为了捕捉这些对大众政治态度的不同影响，本项目在2002年巴西两个城市：Juiz de Fora （Minas Gerais）和Caxias do Sui（里约热内卢Grande do Sui）的选举期间提出了一个上下文敏感的小组研究。社区将作为抽样单位：在每个城市的20个社区中，每个社区将采访100名成年人，这些成年人足以形成社区的总体意见。第一波将在3月份竞选开始前进行。第二轮投票将在第一轮投票之前举行，第三轮投票将在第二轮投票之后，即10月中旬举行。约800名主要受访者的“讨论伙伴”也将接受采访。同时，将对纸媒、电视新闻和党控电视节目进行内容分析。最后，将对构成每个社区“政治背景”的协会和政治组织的成员进行访谈。该项目将产生第一个理论和经验基础的投票选择模型在众多弱势政党的环境；也就是说，第一个模型包含了所有可能影响选举行为的主要因素。由于巴西的环境与东欧和拉丁美洲的许多新兴民主国家相匹配，我们的研究结果将阐明民主问责制、媒体和竞选影响以及政治和社会网络在许多其他环境中的影响等问题。

This research studies the determinants of electoral choice in emerging democracies, where the number of parties is large, there is a low degree of partisanship, and volatile electorates. In such environments, how do citizens learn about issues and candidates? How do social background and economic circumstance combine with partisan ties, ideological predispositions, and media-delivered information to shape mass political behavior? What are the effects of conversations with neighbors and political activists? Is there accountability in electoral processes with these microfoundations? This project tests a comprehensive model of political attitude formation and change in Brazil, a country ideal for the study of mass behavior under multiple parties and weak partisanship. With the nation about to embark on its fourth presidential campaign since redemocratizing, the number of parties is high but stable. Although a rough left-right continuum differentiates the major parties and many voters, only a small minority of citizens expresses any partisan identification. The media are politically and technologically sophisticated, and civil society is increasingly mobilized. At the same time, more Brazilians point to informal conversations with friends, family and colleagues as their main source of political information than to any other source. The result is that Brazil, like many countries with weak, multiple parties, has very volatile and unpredictable election campaigns. Finally, Brazil is also ideal for testing the institutional sources of mass political behavior because it varies internally in terms of partisan alignments, individual party strength and electoral rules. To capture these various influences on mass political attitudes, this project proposes a context- sensitive panel study during the elections of 2002 in two Brazilian cities: Juiz de Fora (Minas Gerais) and Caxias do Sui (Rio Grande do SuI). Neighborhoods will be sampling units: 100 adults, enough to establish aggregate neighborhood opinion, will be interviewed in each of 20 neighborhoods in each city. The first wave will take place before the campaign begins, in March. The second wave will be just before the first round of the election, and the third wave will be after the second round, in the middle of October. About 800 "discussion partners" of the main respondents will also be interviewed. Concurrently, print media sources, TV news, and party-controlled TV programs will be content analyzed. Finally, members of the associations Iand political organizations that comprise each neighborhood's "political context" will be interviewed. This project will produce the first theoretically and empirically grounded model of vote choice in a milieu of numerous weak parties; that is, the first model including all the major factors potentially influencing electoral behavior. Because the Brazilian environment is matched by many emerging democracies in Eastern Europe and Latin America, our results will illuminate questions of democratic accountability, media and campaign influence, and the effects of political and social networks in many other settings as well.