The Dynamics of Political Attitude Formation in a Milieu of Multiple Weak Parties: A Context-Sensitive Analysis of Voting Behavior in Two Brazilian Cities

本研究主要探讨新兴民主国家的选举选择决定因素，这些国家的政党数量众多，党派之争程度较低，选民也不稳定。在这样的环境中，公民如何了解问题和候选人？社会背景和经济环境是如何联合收割机与党派关系、意识形态倾向和媒体传递的信息相结合来塑造大众政治行为的？与邻居和政治活动家交谈的效果是什么？这些微型基金会在选举进程中是否有问责制？该项目测试了巴西政治态度形成和变化的综合模型，巴西是一个非常适合研究多党和弱党派关系下群众行为的国家。随着美国即将开始自重新民主化以来的第四次总统竞选，政党的数量很高，但很稳定。虽然一个粗略的左，右连续区分主要政党和许多选民，只有一小部分公民表示任何党派认同。媒体在政治上和技术上都很先进，民间社会也日益动员起来。与此同时，更多的巴西人指出，与朋友、家人和同事的非正式对话是他们获得政治信息的主要来源，而不是其他任何来源。其结果是，巴西像许多国家一样，多个政党都很弱，竞选活动非常不稳定和不可预测。最后，巴西也是测试大众政治行为的制度来源的理想之地，因为它在党派联盟、个别政党力量和选举规则方面存在内部差异。为了掌握这些对大众政治态度的各种影响，本项目提出了一项2002年巴西两个城市选举期间的背景敏感小组研究：Juiz de Fora（米纳斯吉拉斯）和卡希亚斯do Sui（格兰德河do Sui）。社区将是抽样单位：每个城市的20个社区将分别采访100名成年人，足以建立社区的总体意见。第一波活动将于三月份活动开始前进行。第二波将在第一轮选举之前，第三波将在第二轮选举之后，即10月中旬。约800名主要受访者的“讨论伙伴”也将接受采访。同时，将对印刷媒体来源、电视新闻和党控制的电视节目进行内容分析。最后，将采访构成每个社区“政治背景”的协会和政治组织的成员。该项目将在众多弱势政党的环境中产生第一个基于理论和经验的投票选择模型;也就是说，第一个模型包括所有可能影响选举行为的主要因素。由于巴西的环境与东欧和拉丁美洲的许多新兴民主国家相匹配，我们的结果将阐明民主问责制，媒体和竞选影响力以及政治和社交网络在许多其他环境中的影响等问题。

This research studies the determinants of electoral choice in emerging democracies, where the number of parties is large, there is a low degree of partisanship, and volatile electorates. In such environments, how do citizens learn about issues and candidates? How do social background and economic circumstance combine with partisan ties, ideological predispositions, and media-delivered information to shape mass political behavior? What are the effects of conversations with neighbors and political activists? Is there accountability in electoral processes with these microfoundations? This project tests a comprehensive model of political attitude formation and change in Brazil, a country ideal for the study of mass behavior under multiple parties and weak partisanship. With the nation about to embark on its fourth presidential campaign since redemocratizing, the number of parties is high but stable. Although a rough left-right continuum differentiates the major parties and many voters, only a small minority of citizens expresses any partisan identification. The media are politically and technologically sophisticated, and civil society is increasingly mobilized. At the same time, more Brazilians point to informal conversations with friends, family and colleagues as their main source of political information than to any other source. The result is that Brazil, like many countries with weak, multiple parties, has very volatile and unpredictable election campaigns. Finally, Brazil is also ideal for testing the institutional sources of mass political behavior because it varies internally in terms of partisan alignments, individual party strength and electoral rules. To capture these various influences on mass political attitudes, this project proposes a context- sensitive panel study during the elections of 2002 in two Brazilian cities: Juiz de Fora (Minas Gerais) and Caxias do Sui (Rio Grande do SuI). Neighborhoods will be sampling units: 100 adults, enough to establish aggregate neighborhood opinion, will be interviewed in each of 20 neighborhoods in each city. The first wave will take place before the campaign begins, in March. The second wave will be just before the first round of the election, and the third wave will be after the second round, in the middle of October. About 800 "discussion partners" of the main respondents will also be interviewed. Concurrently, print media sources, TV news, and party-controlled TV programs will be content analyzed. Finally, members of the associations Iand political organizations that comprise each neighborhood's "political context" will be interviewed. This project will produce the first theoretically and empirically grounded model of vote choice in a milieu of numerous weak parties; that is, the first model including all the major factors potentially influencing electoral behavior. Because the Brazilian environment is matched by many emerging democracies in Eastern Europe and Latin America, our results will illuminate questions of democratic accountability, media and campaign influence, and the effects of political and social networks in many other settings as well.