Model-Aided Synoptic Studies

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The overall goal of this research project is to clarify our understanding of how cyclones (storms) and related atmospheric weather systems form and intensify. The results are likely to contribute to improved skill in weather prediction. Three phenomena will be investigated. The first are extratropical cyclones, particularly cases where there is rapid intensification. The PI hopes to identify the factors which cause cyclogenesis to be explosive. A second area of study is directed at mesoscale solitary gravity waves. These waves represent disturbances with the cyclone that typically are 100 kilometers wide and one hour in duration and cause very rapid pressure falls and sometimes dangerous winds. The third area involves the study of polar lows which are small intense cyclones that develop primarily over the ocean in polar regions. For all three topics, the PI will employ both observational and model- generated data sets. The latter will be taken from simulations done with mesoscale model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.