Improvement of Earthquake Loss Prediction Model Based on theLoma Prieta Earthquake

这是一个事后调查项目，旨在从1989年10月洛马普列塔地震中吸取工程教训。该项目的目的是提高现有的基于10月17日洛马普里塔地震观测数据的地震损失估计模型的可靠性。研究将集中在两个问题上：*由于某些土壤条件引起的地面运动的放大；以及*不同类型建筑物损失估计矩阵的贝叶斯更新。该研究将包括四个任务：(1)数据收集和处理；(2)土壤放大模型的开发；(3)强度-损伤关系的贝叶斯更新；(4)斯坦福大学研究人员早期开发的更新的综合损失估计模型的校准。项目的成功完成将推动地震风险管理技术的发展，造福社会各阶层。

This a post-event investigation project to learn engineering lessons from the Loma Prieta earthquake (October 1989). The objective of this project is to improve the reliability of the existing earthquake loss estimation models based upon observations of the October 17 Loma Prieta earthquake. Research will be focused on two issues: * the amplification of ground motion due to certain soil conditions, and * a Bayesian update of the loss estimate matricies for various classes of buildings. The study will comprise of four tasks: (1) Data collecting and processing, (2) development of soil amplification model, (3) Bayesian update of intensity-damage relationships, and (4) calibration of the updated integrated loss estimation model developed earlier by the investigators at Stanford University. A successful completion of the project will advance the state of the art in earthquake risk management to the benefit of all segments of society.