Project ARRCC: Analysis of Recent and Rapid Climate Change

ARRCC 项目：近期快速气候变化分析

• 批准号: 9011048
• 负责人: Malcolm Hughes
• 金额: $ 8.35万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1991
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1991-09-15 至 1995-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9011048&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Project; ARRCC; Analysis; Recent; Rapid

Project ARRCC: Analysis of Rapid and Recent Climate Change Climatic changes on time scales of years to centuries have the most direct impact on society and humanity. Yet changes on these time scales are hard to predict because we have yet to isolate climate forcing factors in this frequency range. Project ARRCC aims to evaluate past variations in climate on annual to century time scales in order to develop a better understanding of the types and magnitude of the changes observed as well as to evaluate two potential causes: changes in solar activity and the effects of volcanic aerosol input into the atmosphere. Project ARRCC will produce detailed time series of climate variations for the last 500 years, an interval which includes the Little Ice Age. During this interval there was also a significant reduction in the number of sunspots (the Maunder Minimum) leading many researchers to suggest some causal relationship. The PIs in Project ARRCC will synthesize the quantitative paleoclimate data for this time interval and compare the results to model simulations which vary the intensity of incoming solar radiation and the reflectivity of the atmosphere because of changes in volcanic aerosol concentration. This research is important for three reasons: 1) it will be the first synthesis of this important paleoclimate event; 2) it will produce a rigorous, global data base of past climate for use by other researchers; and 3) it will be the first rigorous attempt to quantify the effects of solar radiation and volcanic activity on climate change. This research is a high-priorty for the US Global Change Research Program.

ARRCC 项目：近期快速气候变化分析 数年至数百年时间尺度的气候变化对社会和人类有着最直接的影响。 然而，这些时间尺度上的变化很难预测，因为我们尚未在这个频率范围内分离出气候强迫因素。 ARRCC 项目旨在评估过去每年到世纪时间尺度上的气候变化，以便更好地了解观测到的变化的类型和幅度，并评估两个潜在原因：太阳活动的变化和火山气溶胶输入大气的影响。 ARRCC 项目将生成过去 500 年气候变化的详细时间序列，其中包括小冰河期。 在此期间，太阳黑子的数量（蒙德极小值）也显着减少，导致许多研究人员提出了某种因果关系。 ARRCC 项目的 PI 将综合该时间间隔的定量古气候数据，并将结果与​​模型模拟进行比较，模型模拟会因火山气溶胶浓度的变化而改变入射太阳辐射的强度和大气的反射率。 这项研究之所以重要，有以下三个原因：1）它将是对这一重要古气候事件的首次综合分析； 2）它将产生一个严格的、全球过去气候数据库供其他研究人员使用； 3）这将是量化太阳辐射和火山活动对气候变化影响的首次严格尝试。 这项研究是美国全球变化研究计划的高度优先事项。