Project ARRCC: Analysis of Recent and Rapid Climatic Change

ARRCC项目：快速和近期气候变化分析 以年至世纪为时间尺度的气候变化 对社会和人类有着最直接的影响。 然而变化 很难预测，因为我们还没有 在这个频率范围内孤立的气候强迫因素。 项目 ARRCC的目的是评估过去气候的变化， 世纪的时间尺度，以便更好地了解 观察到的变化的类型和幅度，以及 评估两个潜在的原因：太阳活动的变化和 火山气溶胶进入大气的影响。项目 ARRCC将产生详细的气候变化时间序列， 在过去的500年里， 年龄 在此期间， 太阳黑子数量（蒙德极小期）领先许多 研究人员提出了一些因果关系。 景湾的私立独立学校 ARRCC项目将综合定量古气候数据， 并将结果与模型进行比较 改变入射太阳辐射强度的模拟 以及大气层的反射率， 火山气溶胶浓度 这项研究对于 三个原因：1）它将是第一个综合这一点， 重要的古气候事件; 2）它将产生一个严格的， 供其他研究人员使用的过去气候全球数据库; 3）这将是第一次严格尝试量化 太阳辐射和火山活动对气候的影响 变化 这项研究是美国全球变化的一个高度优先事项 研究计划。

Project ARRCC: Analysis of Rapid and Recent Climate Change Climatic changes on time scales of years to centuries have the most direct impact on society and humanity. Yet changes on these time scales are hard to predict because we have yet to isolate climate forcing factors in this frequency range. Project ARRCC aims to evaluate past variations in climate on annual to century time scales in order to develop a better understanding of the types and magnitude of the changes observed as well as to evaluate two potential causes: changes in solar activity and the effects of volcanic aerosol input into the atmosphere. Project ARRCC will produce detailed time series of climate variations for the last 500 years, an interval which includes the Little Ice Age. During this interval there was also a significant reduction in the number of sunspots (the Maunder Minimum) leading many researchers to suggest some causal relationship. The PIs in Project ARRCC will synthesize the quantitative paleoclimate data for this time interval and compare the results to model simulations which vary the intensity of incoming solar radiation and the reflectivity of the atmosphere because of changes in volcanic aerosol concentration. This research is important for three reasons: 1) it will be the first synthesis of this important paleoclimate event; 2) it will produce a rigorous, global data base of past climate for use by other researchers; and 3) it will be the first rigorous attempt to quantify the effects of solar radiation and volcanic activity on climate change. This research is a high-priorty for the US Global Change Research Program.