The Effect of Loma Prieta Earthquake on the Bay Area Housingand Rental Markets

该项目的主要目的是确定有关地震风险的新信息在多大程度上改变了湾区住房市场。我们最感兴趣的是确定未经加固的住宅物业的价值因以下原因下降了多少（如果有的话）：1)地震，2)预计该地区建筑规范的修订，3)建筑在地震中不安全的公众通知（帕洛阿尔托的要求）。一种享乐定价模型的变体将被用来衡量湾区为地震安全买单的意愿。将分析从房地产估价师协会获得的重复销售数据，以隔离风险和法规对市场价值的影响。结果表明：1)土壤和结构缺陷对房产价值的影响；2)业主是否可以收回提高地震安全的成本；3)业主放弃或转换出租物业而不遵守修订守则的可能性；4)旨在诱导自愿遵守的政策，如在帕洛阿尔托实施的政策，在多大程度上产生了适当的市场信号。

The primary purpose of this project is to determine the extent to which new information about earthquake risks has altered the Bay Area housing market. We are most interested in determining how much, if any, the value of unreinforced residential properties has declined as a result of: 1) the earthquake, 2) anticipated revisions to the region's building codes and 3) public notification that a structure is seismically unsafe (as required in Palo Alto). A variation of the hedonic pricing model will be used to measure the Bay Area's willingness to pay for seismic safety. Repeat sales data obtained from the Society of Real Estate Appraisers will be analyzed to isolate the effects of risks and regulations on market values. The results will show: 1) the effects of soils and structural deficiencies on property values; 2) whether the costs of improving seismic safety can be recouped by the property owner; 3) the likelihood that property owners would abandon or convert rental properties rather than comply with the revised code; and 4) the extent to which policies designed to induce voluntary compliance, such as those in place in Palo Alto, have produced the appropriate market signals.