The Effect of Loma Prieta Earthquake on the Bay Area Housingand Rental Markets

该项目的主要目的是 确定新信息在多大程度上 关于地震风险的说法已经改变了海湾 地区住房市场。 我们最感兴趣 在确定有多少，如果有的话， 未经加固的住宅物业 下降的原因是：1）地震， 2)该区域的预期修订 建筑规范和3）公开通知， 建筑物在地震方面不安全（根据要求 in Palo Alto）. 特征定价模型的一个变体将 用来衡量湾区是否愿意 支付地震安全费用。 重复销售数据 从真实的房地产协会获得 评估人员将进行分析， 风险和监管对市场的影响 价值观 结果表明：（1） 土壤和结构缺陷对财产 （2）提高成本; 地震安全性可以通过财产来补偿 （3）业主的可能性 会放弃或转换出租物业 而不遵守经修订的守则;及 4)政策在多大程度上旨在 鼓励自愿遵守，例如 在帕洛阿尔托的地方， 适当的市场信号。

The primary purpose of this project is to determine the extent to which new information about earthquake risks has altered the Bay Area housing market. We are most interested in determining how much, if any, the value of unreinforced residential properties has declined as a result of: 1) the earthquake, 2) anticipated revisions to the region's building codes and 3) public notification that a structure is seismically unsafe (as required in Palo Alto). A variation of the hedonic pricing model will be used to measure the Bay Area's willingness to pay for seismic safety. Repeat sales data obtained from the Society of Real Estate Appraisers will be analyzed to isolate the effects of risks and regulations on market values. The results will show: 1) the effects of soils and structural deficiencies on property values; 2) whether the costs of improving seismic safety can be recouped by the property owner; 3) the likelihood that property owners would abandon or convert rental properties rather than comply with the revised code; and 4) the extent to which policies designed to induce voluntary compliance, such as those in place in Palo Alto, have produced the appropriate market signals.