Tropical Glaciers and Climate

该项目涉及局部冰川对气候强迫的反应，包括评价卫星数据、分析冰川地图以及测量、建模和预测。它根据适当的信息将重点放在少数区域目标上。由于SPOT的良好空间分辨率，“局部卫星冰川学”可能成为现实。肯尼亚山显然是一个早期的机会目标，因为在这里，用我们1987年9月1：5000的冰情地图进行校准是可能的。对于乞力马扎罗山，将使用卫星遥感来评估自20世纪70年代初以来的冰冻圈变化。将对东非的这两座冰川山脉研究太阳直接辐射和温室效应对观测到的冰川退缩的强迫作用，在那里，冰川范围的变化可以记录在过去一个世纪的各个时期，地形通过适当比例尺的地图得到了很好的分辨。对涉及冰川动力学的因果链进行建模的目的是为仅有的两个热带冰川建立模型，并提供适当的实地观测记录。对于肯尼亚山上的刘易斯冰川，应对实地观测进行评估，以验证基于模型的预测，并确定气候变化的影响。对于秘鲁Cordillera Blanca的Yanamarey冰川，将结合现场观测和建模来预测未来的发展，并重建过去的净平衡条件和导致过去一个世纪冰川消退的气候强迫。结合早先对新几内亚和东非的类似研究，这将表明全球热带地区冰川衰退开始时的多样性。

This project is concerned with the response of topical glaciers to climatic forcing and comprises evaluation of satellite data, analysis of glaciological mappings and measurement, modelling and prediction. It is focused on a few regional targets in accordance with suitable information. A "topical satellite glaciology" may become a reality thanks to the fine spatial resolution of SPOT. Mount Kenya is an obvious early target of opportunity because here a calibration is possible with our 1:5,000 map of the ice status in September 1987. For Kilimanjaro satellite sensing shall be used to assess cryosphere changes since the early 1970's. The forcing of the observed ice recession by direct solar radiation and greenhouse effects is to be studied for these two glaciated mountains in East Africa, where the changing ice extent can be documented for various epochs over the past century and where the topography is well resolved by maps at appropriate scales. Modelling of a causality chain involving the ice dynamics is intended for the only two tropical glaciers with a suitable documentation of field observations. For the Lewis Glacier on Mount Kenya, field observations shall be evaluated to verify modelling-based predictions and to ascertain effects of climatic change. For the Yanamarey Glacier in Peru's Cordillera Blanca, field observations and modelling are to be combined to predict future developments, as well as to reconstruct the past net balance conditions and the climatic forcing responsible for the ice retreat over the past century. In conjunction with similar earlier studies for New Guinea and East Africa, this would indicate the diversity in the beginning of the ice recession across the global tropics.