Interannual Variability of Tropical Climate

热带气候的年际变化

• 批准号: 9101097
• 负责人: Stefan Hastenrath
• 金额: $ 36.94万
• 依托单位: University of Wisconsin-Madison
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1991
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1991-06-01 至 1995-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9101097&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Interannual; Variability; Tropical; Climate

This research project seeks to extend and broaden a study concerned with the general-circulation functioning of tropical climate anomalies and leads from diagnostics to prediction. The approach is primarily empirical, but is being combined with GCM applications. The project shall over the next few years concentrate on (a) climate prediction for selected "targets of opportunity", (b) the relation of convection to surface temperature variations on the scale of the global tropics, (c) interannual and decadal-scale variations in the Indian Ocean monsoon systems, and (d) the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. (a) Climate prediction methods of high performance have been developed for Northeast Brazil rainfall and Guyana river discharge. In collaboration with local colleagues it is intended to bring these to operational application. Other "targets of opportunity" include the West African Sahel, the costal regions of Eastern Africa, and the Parana river catchment of southern South America. (b) Interannual variations of convective patterns over the global tropics shall be studied in relation to the varying surface temperature conditions, using a combination of novel surface, upper-air, and satellite-derived datasets; empirical analyses shall be complemented by GCM experiments. (c) Variations in the Indian Ocean monsoon systems shall be studied with particular attention to eastern Africa, where rainy seasons fall into transitions in the planetary-scale annual cycle. (d) The South Atlantic Convergence Zone is well developed in austral summer when it plays an important role in the rainfall regime of southern America. A combination of novel data banks invites a comprehensive diagnostic investigation. The project components are interrelated. Thus, analyses of convection and surface temperature in the global tropics (b) also serve two regional diagnostic studies (c and d), which in turn create firmer foundations for prediction (a). This research is important because it seeks to provide an improved understanding of climate processes in the tropics, an area of the globe that has strong influence on the weather and climate over the remainder of our planet.

这个研究项目旨在扩展和扩大有关热带气候异常的环流功能的研究，并从诊断到预测。该方法主要是经验性的，但正在与GCM应用相结合。该项目将在未来几年集中于(a)选定的“机会目标”的气候预测，(b)全球热带尺度上对流与地表温度变化的关系，(c)印度洋季风系统的年际和十年尺度变化，以及(d)南大西洋辐合带。(a)对巴西东北部的降雨和圭亚那河的流量已发展出高效率的气候预测方法。通过与当地同事的合作，我们打算将这些技术应用到实际操作中。其他“机会目标”包括西非萨赫勒地区、东非沿海地区和南美洲南部的巴拉那河流域。(b)应结合使用新的地面、高空和卫星数据集，研究全球热带地区对流型的年际变化与变化的地表温度条件的关系；实证分析应辅以GCM实验。(c)应研究印度洋季风系统的变化，特别注意东非，那里的雨季处于行星尺度年周期的过渡阶段。(d)南大西洋辐合带在南部夏季很发达，对南美洲的降雨情况起重要作用。新数据库的组合要求进行全面的诊断调查。项目组成部分是相互关联的。因此，对全球热带地区对流和地表温度的分析(b)也服务于两个区域诊断研究（c和d），这反过来又为预测(a)建立了更坚实的基础。这项研究很重要，因为它试图提供对热带气候过程的更好理解，热带是一个对地球其他地区的天气和气候有强烈影响的地区。