U.S.-France Cooperative Research: Multinational EconometricPolicy Analysis

该奖项将支持美国和法国研究人员就多国计量经济学政策分析主题进行的联合研究。美国调查人员是：加州大学圣地亚哥分校的罗伯特·F·恩格尔博士、克莱夫·W·格兰杰博士和哈尔伯特·L·怀特博士。在法国的合作者是：艾克斯-马赛第二和第三大学的米歇尔·卢布拉诺博士、吕克·鲍文斯博士和拉塞尔·戴维森博士。该项目的目标是开发和应用统计技术来评估政策模型。计量经济学家和应用经济学家可能最重要的活动之一是制作模型，供政策制定者用来帮助他们确定适当的政策。然而，这些模型不仅必须通过标准规范测试和评估程序，而且还必须表明它们与政策目的相关。这些模型的检验程序非常初步，需要进一步的理论和经验发展。在这个项目中，研究人员将检查并应用计量经济学方法来研究现有的模型。理论发展将与实证研究相结合，这些研究将考察各国产出和资产价格的共同变动。无论是在计量经济学的理论和实践，还是在测试和测试程序的开发和应用方面，美国和法国的集团都拥有丰富的经验。特别是，法国调查人员为项目带来了基于与使用人工回归相关的方法的测试程序以及贝叶斯规范测试的经验。

This award will support joint research between US and French researchers on the topic of multinational econometric policy analysis. The US investigators are: Dr. Robert F. Engle, Dr. Clive W. Granger, and Dr. Halbert L. White, University of California at San Diego. The collaborators in France are: Dr. Michel Lubrano, Dr. Luc Bauwens and Dr. Russell Davidson, University of Aix-Marseille II and III. The objective of the project is to develop and apply statistical techniques to evaluate policy models. Potentially one of the most important activities by econometricians and applied economists is the production of models to be used by policy makers to help them determine an appropriate policy. However, these models have to pass not only standard specification tests and evaluation procedures, but they also have to show that they are relevant for policy purposes. Testing procedures for these models are very preliminary and are in need of both further theoretical and empirical development. In this project, the investigators will examine and apply econometric methods to study existing models. Theoretical developments will be coupled with empirical studies, which examine the co-movements of output and asset prices across countries. Both the US and French groups have extensive experience in both the theory and practice of econometrics, as well as in the development and application of tests and testing procedures. In particular, the French investigators bring to the project experience of testing procedures based on methods associated with the use of artificial regressions, as well as Bayesian specification testing.